Sep 20, 2025; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Astros second baseman Jose Altuve (27) reacts after the sixth inning against the Seattle Mariners at Daikin Park. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

New Prediction Dents Astros’ Division Title Chances

Originally posted on Houston Astros on SI
By Dominic Minchella | Last updated Jan 13, 2026 2:00 PM ET

The 2025 campaign wasn't bad by any means for the Houston Astros, as they finished with 87 wins. However, hitting several bumps along the way to the finish line, the Astros fell short of the AL West division title and missed the playoffs for the first time since 2016.

It might be easy to predict that Houston will be right back in the race for the division crown in 2026, but in one recent prediction, highlighting the most likely division winners from 2025 to repeat in 2026, the Astros take the back seat again to the Seattle Mariners.

Houston Predicted to Lose Division Race

Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

MLB.com's Will Leitch projects the Mariners as the second most likely division winner to repeat their 2025 success and reclaim the division title in 2026, only trailing the back-to-back World Series champions, the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Leitch described the Houston roster as "less imposing" compared to years past. But when looking at the race last season between the Astros and Mariners, a few games could have decided the outcome, implying it could be a tough race again in 2026.

Sure, the Astros aren't as dominant as they once were, but they still possess professional hitters at the plate who can get the job done in high-leverage situations, and a pitching staff led by homegrown talent Hunter Brown.

Erik Williams-Imagn Images

On the pitching side of things, if the Astros can get Framber Valdez to re-sign, things could go 50/50 in the division. While that might not be the case for Houston, other pitchers like Brown, Christian Javier, and newly signed Tatsuya Imai could easily get the job done.

Seattle will impose tough competition, as its roster doesn't have as much turnover from last season to this season compared to other franchises. But seeing that the Mariners were able to win their first division title since 2001 in 2025, the odds should likely lean towards Houston, which has recency in winning division titles.

Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

Depending on how the Texas Rangers perform, the AL West division seems to be a two-headed race between Houston and Seattle. The Athletics made strides, but they don't look like they're division winners just yet, and the same narrative can be made about the Los Angeles Angels.

If stars like Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa , Christian Walker, and others can tap into their former production, the Astros shouldn't be left out of the competition until proven otherwise.