New York Mets face intriguing dilemma with Nolan McLean

If the regular season ended today, there is a good chance the Mets would want McLean to pitch the first game of their Wild Card series, showcasing how valuable he has become. While McLean's debut was likely too late for him to earn significant Rookie of the Year consideration, his success has created an interesting dilemma for the team first posed by Mets' fan Christopher Soto on X.

If any pitcher exceeds 50 innings in a season, they are no longer eligible for the Rookie of the Year award in the following season. If the Mets keep McLean under a combined 12.1 innings over his last two starts, they would maintain his rookie status, which could be helpful for the franchise's long-term health via the league's Prospect Promotion Incentive program.

The PPI program allows teams who carry a player ranked in the Preseason Top 100 prospect lists of at least two major media outlets (like Baseball America or MLB Pipeline) for the majority of the season to receive an extra draft pick in the following year's draft if that player either wins Rookie of the Year or finishes in the Top 3 of the Cy Young or MVP balloting.

That draft pick would come after the end of the first round, which could be an asset for a Mets' team that has seen its first pick moved back 10 slots the past few years for exceeding the third barrier of the luxury tax. That pick would also bring extra bonus pool money with it, which could allow David Stearns to be more aggressive in the draft to stock an already strong farm system with more talent.

Should The Mets Go All Out To Protect Nolan McLean's Rookie Status For 2026?

If McLean is eligible for Rookie of the Year honors next season, it would be reasonable to assume he would be one of the preseason favorites to take the award home. The problem with that scenario is it would require the Mets to limit McLean's innings over his final two starts, which is an issue after the team put itself in a situation where they need every win possible to get in the postseason.

McLean is currently lined up to pitch twice more in the regular season, on Saturday against Washington and either Thursday or Friday of next week, depending on how the Mets align their rotation. If the Mets are able to take big leads in these games, it is possible they would be able to protect McLean's rookie status without jeopardizing their postseason chances.

Assuming McLean goes six innings on Saturday, which he has done in four of his first six starts with the Mets, they would only have 6.1 innings left to play with in his next start to protect his rookie status. If the Mets had a narrow lead in McLean's next start and he had 70 pitches through six innings, they would have to choose whether to push McLean deeper into the game and burn his rookie status or pull him to preserve it while hoping the bullpen could seal a win.

There is logic to protecting McLean's rookie status for PPI purposes, but it is far from guaranteed that he would win a major award next season or finish in the Top 3 of the Cy Young balloting. The league could make adjustments to McLean, reducing his effectiveness at least temporarily, or he could suffer an injury that causes him to miss some time, reducing his odds of winning awards.

It is also likely that even if McLean has a dominant year, another rookie could put up better stats and win the voting for NL Rookie of the Year. Considering all of those factors, it is likely that McLean's odds of doing enough to earn PPI status for the Mets sit at 10% at most.

The reward of an extra draft pick and bonus pool money is nice for the long view, but the odds of finding a productive future big leaguer with a pick in the late 20s or early 30s aren't stellar. The players the Mets would draft in this scenario are also either 16-year-olds in high school or college freshmen who likely won't be ready to help the big club until 2030 at the earliest.

Protecting McLean's rookie status at all costs means placing a series of lottery ticket bets on amateur talent at the expense of going all out for a talented team that has Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto in their primes right now. The MLB Postseason has become an infamous free-for-all of late, and with no dominant teams in the league this season sans Milwaukee, whose style doesn't usually translate well to a short series, there is every chance the Mets could get in and get hot enough to snap a 39-year World Series drought.

It would also be a tough sell for the players in the locker room to be told that the team is prioritizing potential future draft considerations over giving their best pitcher the ball as often as possible. The Mets could also still have a chance to recoup PPI assets even if they burn McLean's rookie eligibility since there's a good chance Jonah Tong, Brandon Sproat, Carson Benge and Jett Williams could all qualify for the program next season.

There is a reason that deferred money is worth less than present day dollars, and damaging your chances in 2025 for the potential of nailing a Goldberg machine style sequence of events to add extra draft assets doesn't make sense. The Mets would love to have their cake and eat it too, but if it comes down to a choice, they need to use McLean as much as they need to in 2025 in order to maximize their chances of reaching the postseason.