New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres prediction, pick, MLB odds for Thu. 8/22

Mets vs. Padres Odds

Thursday, Aug. 22

9:40 p.m. ET

MLB.TV

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Mets vs. Padres Projected Starting Pitchers

Nick Martin’s Mets vs. Padres Preview

New York Mets Betting Preview: The Lineup Crushes Righties

FanGraphs offers the Mets a 27.3% chance of claiming a playoff spot entering this road trip. The trip features seven games against two of the league's hottest teams: the Padres and Diamondbacks, occupying the top two wild-card spots. Even a mark of 4-3 in the next seven games would likely raise that percentage by some extent, given the difficulty of those matchups.

A matchup versus Cease is undoubtedly a tough way to kick things off, but the Mets managed seven runs off of him on June 16th and chased him from the game midway through the fourth inning.

The Mets have done well against fastballs and sliders this year, which will play against Cease. The Mets also rank seventh in wRC+ since the start of July (114), behind a decent 35% hard-hit rate.

New York has no everyday position players on the IL and should feature its top lineup in this matchup.

Severino snapped out of an ugly run of results in his last start, posting a complete game shutout over the Marlins, allowing only four hits with eight strikeouts. In 33 innings since the All-Star break, Severino has posted a 3.77 xFIP while striking out almost 10 batters per nine innings. He's allowed a .227 xBA during the stretch with a reasonable 33% hard-hit rate, suggesting his .318 BABIP allowed during those starts has been unlucky.

San Diego Padres Betting Preview: Cease In Great Form

Cease enters this matchup in an incredible run of form, having pitched to a 1.62 ERA in 33 1/3 innings of work since the All-Star break. He holds a 3.25 xFIP during that span while striking out 10 batters per nine innings.

There's no question he is in better form than Severino, but Cease's .169 BABIP since the All-Star break likely makes the gap between the two look a little wider than it is.

The Padres offense has hit both righties and lefties effectively this season and should be one of the deeper units in baseball if they ever enjoy full health. They have been less potent against right-handed pitching, though, with a 110 wRC+ since the start of July, ranking 12th during the span.

Their 33% hard-hit rate during the stretch ranks 14th, and their plate discipline has been considerably worse against righties (20th-ranked BB/K).

Mets vs. Padres Prediction, Betting Analysis

While Cease has been one of the hottest pitchers in the league since the All-Star break, this looks like a pretty good spot to try and fade him in a tough matchup.

For a lengthy sample, the Mets have been one of the best offenses in the league against RHP. They have posted strong results versus sliders and four-seamers, respectively, and hit Cease very well in their first matchup this season.

Severino has posted solid underlying results lately and should continue to be a reliable starter the rest of the way.

The over 7.5 looks to be a popular play, and I can see the thinking there given the form of these offenses, but with winds blowing in at one of the more pitcher-friendly ballparks, I will choose to pass.

I see value in backing New York to steal this important matchup at +135, and I would bet anything better than +125.

Pick: New York Mets ML (+135, bet365) | Play to ML (+125)

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