Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Cubs center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong (4) rounds the bases after hitting a solo home run against the St. Louis Cardinals during the first inning at Wrigley Field. Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

NL Central Makes History as MLB's Most Dangerous Division at All-Star Break

Originally posted on Fastball on SI | By Sam Connon | Last updated Jul 17, 2025 11:54 AM ET

Coming out of the All-Star break, one division has proven to be the biggest bloodbath in the majors.

The Chicago Cubs lead the fiercely competitive National League Central at 57-39, holding a 1.0-game lead over the Milwaukee Brewers. The St. Louis Cardinals and Cincinnati Reds are both over .500 as well, within shouting distance of an NL Wild Card spot.

Even the Pittsburgh Pirates, who sit at 39-58, only have a run differential of minus-53. For reference, every other last-place team has a run differential of minus-90 or worse, with the Athletics at minus-134 and Colorado Rockies at minus-253.

The Cubs' plus-119 run differential is the best in MLB. The New York Yankees and Detroit Tigers are the only other teams with better run differentials than the Brewers' plus-81 mark.

Adding in the Reds and Cardinals' plus-31 and plus-17, respectively, the entire division has the best run differential in baseball at plus-195. According to OptaSTATS, that is good for the highest run differential ever by an NL division at the All-Star break.

The NL Central has a combined +195 run differential so far in 2025.

That's the best run differential ever by a National League division at the All-Star break. pic.twitter.com/c0kLmXnH59
— OptaSTATS (@OptaSTATS) July 17, 2025

FanGraphs currently gives the Cubs a 93.6% chance to make the playoffs, but the Brewers arent far behind at 82.5%. At 28.7% and 11.4%, the Cardinals and Reds aren't out of the race yet either.

This article first appeared on Fastball on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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