On The Yankees’ Third Base Dilemma

The Yankees had a strong season overall but still clearly need to upgrade following a three-game ALDS sweep at the hands of the Rays. The bullpen is going to see some turnover with the injured Fernando Cruz being a non-tender candidate, as well as Paul Blackburn and closer David Bednar entering free agency. Jazz Chisholm Jr. is also a free agent and may end up elsewhere, as much as he wants to stay in New York. Current reports predict that the Yankees will issue a qualifying offer to Bednar. Meanwhile, they’ve given some thought to playing Luis Garcia Jr. at the keystone in place of Chisholm.

Another spot to upgrade is at the hot corner, where Ryan McMahon is coming off an objectively disappointing year, let alone for a playoff team. In 124 games, the now 31-year-old batted just .213/.279/.357 with a wRC+ of 78, or 22% worse than league average. His 29.4% strikeout rate ranked in the ninth percentile according to Statcast, and unfortunately, it was right in line with his career average of 29.3%.

McMahon’s once strong walk rate dropped to a career-worst 7.8% this year, resulting in a mediocre .279 on-base percentage. He also saw a loss of power. After hitting at least 20 home runs in six of the last seven seasons (the only exception being the pandemic-shortened 2020), McMahon only went yard 11 times this year. His .143 isolated power was below the .156 league average and marked another career low.

As a team, the Yankees’ 74 wRC+ from the third base spot tied with the Marlins for the fifth-worst production in the league. McMahon, who averaged 2.3 fWAR per year from 2021-25 thanks to his defense, instead came in at a replacement-level 0.5 fWAR. After accruing +10 Defensive Runs Saved and +7 Outs Above Average in 2025, he was valued at -3 DRS and 0 OAA at the hot corner this year. Statcast usually likes McMahon’s defense when he ranges to the sides, but that range was much closer to average this season.

For all his faults, McMahon is still quite durable. He played in at least 151 games every season from 2021-25. He played 124 games this season, missing time for a throat infection at the end of June as well as a left thumb sprain at the end of August. Those were his first IL stints in over seven years. At the same time, those specific injuries aren’t lower-body ailments, so they don’t offer much explanation for McMahon’s loss of range. It could be a one-year blip, but it may also be the start of his natural, age-related decline.

Whatever the cause of his defensive downturn, it’s increasingly hard to see McMahon as the Yankees’ everyday third baseman in 2027. At the moment, he is under contract at a $16MM guaranteed salary. That’s “only” the seventh-highest salary on New York’s payroll, but it’s still a lot of money for someone who’s never been a good hitter and whose defensive value is now in question. At the same time, there could be some hesitation on the Yankees’ part to cut ties with McMahon given their other offseason needs.

If they retain Bednar, his salary is going to increase either by accepting the QO or (more likely) signing a lucrative multi-year deal. New York could use a few bullpen arms in addition to Bednar, and while pitching coach Matt Blake has gotten plenty of value from unheralded arms before, the Yankees may still need to spend money on the bullpen in free agency. They could also be in the market for a second baseman if they keep Garcia at first base, as their next-best internal option would be Anthony Volpe, an underwhelming hitter in his own right.

There’s also the matter of Giancarlo Stanton. The 36-year-old (37 in November) is entering the final season of the 13-year, $325MM extension he originally signed with the Marlins in November 2014. Stanton is owed a $25MM salary next year, plus a $10MM buyout on a club option for 2028. The Marlins are set to kick in $20MM, so the Yankees’ share of the guarantee stands at $15MM. After another injury-plagued year for Stanton, and with Ben Rice and Aaron Judge both being candidates for DH time, there’s a chance that the Yankees eat the remaining money and simply release Stanton.

MLBTR’s Payroll Tracker has New York at a $282.1MM luxury tax payroll in 2027. That number will go up when you factor in the team’s arbitration class, which MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects to earn $36.7MM. In all likelihood, the Yankees will be at or near the highest level of luxury tax penalization next year. Alternatively, if the CBA negotiations result in a salary cap, they’ll need to find some way to drastically reduce payroll. In either scenario, eating dead money for one or both of McMahon or Stanton would be a tough pill to swallow, and that’s before finding a viable replacement for McMahon.

From a baseball perspective, though, the Yankees simply need more from the third base spot if they hope to make a deeper playoff run in 2027. Admittedly, it’ll be tough to find a replacement for McMahon in free agency. Teruaki Sato is one of the top bats available at any position, not just third base, so he’ll have plenty of suitors and won’t come cheaply. The other options are either rebound candidates (Alec Bohm) or would be playing out of position at third base (Chisholm and J.P. Crawford).

The options on the trade market include the Astros’ Isaac Paredes, the Twins’ Royce Lewis, and the Cardinals’ Nolan Gorman. Houston holds a $13.35MM club option on Paredes which converts to a mutual option if he finishes in the Top 10 of AL MVP voting. Either way, he’s in his last season of control, so it wouldn’t be surprising for the Astros to trade him and use the savings to address their own roster. Lewis and Gorman are both rebound candidates.

Ultimately, the Yankees have a choice between retaining McMahon, knowing his flaws, or releasing him and going after Sato or Paredes, which might complicate the payroll. Whatever the outcome, New York must take steps to improve their offense, which slumped badly after Judge went down for a rib injury. The Yankees’ 93 wRC+ post-Judge injury was tied for fifth-worst in the Majors. Upgrading over McMahon wouldn’t be easy, but in the end, it may prove necessary to build a more complete lineup.