Orioles Amongst Most Disappointing Teams With One of Largest Drops in Playoff Odds

The Baltimore Orioles entered the 2025 MLB regular season as a popular team to contend in the American League.

There was a lot to like about the roster despite some questions about the pitching staff coming into the year. 

Losing Corbin Burnes in free agency and opting to replace him with Charlie Morton, Tomoyuki Sugano and Kyle Gibson was certainly a risk, as the team opted to load up on depth instead of targeting one high-end arm to replace their ace.

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But, with what was projected to be one of the strongest lineups in baseball and a bullpen that was only going to get better with Felix Bautista returning, the Orioles looked like they had more than enough to contend for a playoff spot.

Fast forward to the present day, and about everything that could have gone awry for Baltimore has occurred.

The starting pitching has been worse than even the most pessimistic of people could have predicted.

Their ace, Grayson Rodriguez, has yet to pitch this year, dealing with several injuries. Gibson was a disaster, Zach Eflin has been on the injured list twice and Cade Povich has not taken the steps forward the team had hoped.

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Morton was the worst pitcher in baseball for a few weeks, but has stabilized and gotten back on track recently.

11 different players have started a game for the Orioles this season, speaking to the difficulties the team has had with injuries and ineffective performance on the mound.

Offensively, Baltimore’s young core has stalled in some regard, struggling to consistently produce runs.

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Injuries have also hit this group with Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, Cedric Mullins, Ramon Urias, Jordan Westburg, Ramon Laureano, Colton Cowser, Ryan Mountcastle, Tyler O’Neill, Jorge Mateo and Gary Sanchez all spending time on the injured list.

Navigating that much lost production has been difficult, but Tony Mansolino deserves a lot of credit for helping keep things afloat as the interim manager in place of Brandon Hyde, who was fired after a 15-28 start.

Despite the team turning things around under Mansolino, the Orioles are still among the most disappointing teams in baseball this season.

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Entering the year, they had playoff odds of 45.0%. Right now, those odds sit at 4.1%, with their 40.9% drop being the fourth highest in baseball behind the Atlanta Braves, Arizona Diamondbacks and Minnesota Twins.

“Thanks to a weekend sweep of Atlanta, the O’s are 21-13 since their low point in late May, and they’re playing the kind of baseball that was expected of them at the start of the season. An optimist can squint and chart a path from 13th in the AL to October, past the mediocre middle of the AL Central and the .500 laggards in the AL West, by Boston in the division to where they only need the Mariners, Blue Jays or Rays to falter to give them a legit chance. A pessimist notes that yeah, that sounds like it has a 4.1 percent chance of happening,” wrote Tim Britton of The Athletic (subscription required) in this week’s MLB power rankings.

The early hole that was dug seems too much to overcome, with the eventual selling of a few veterans on expiring contracts seeming to be on the horizon.

For more Orioles news, head over to Orioles On SI.