Outlining the cases of four Blue Jays non-tender candidates

The fact Romano wasn’t able to return to game action before last season concluded makes things even more challenging for Toronto’s front office. Can he regain his All-Star form in 2025? Perhaps. However, the better question is, can they afford to take that gamble for almost $8 million?

With four or five bullpen spots to fill, spreading that amount across multiple arms rather than spending it on a single one is likely the more sensible decision.

Prediction: Non-tendered, potentially re-signed on a multi-year, cost-effective deal

Erik Swanson

2024 salary: $2.75 million

Projected ’25 salary: $3.2 million

Now, this is a tricky one.

At a projected $3.2 million, Swanson carries a manageable price tag for a high-leverage reliever — if the Blue Jays are confident in his late-season resurgence, that is. But the problem is he didn’t turn his campaign around over a large sample size. Instead, after returning from triple-A in July, most of his success began in late August and carried through September.

Still, you can’t argue with how he performed during that impressive stretch, posting a 1.32 ERA and 2.14 FIP with 18 strikeouts and only three walks in 13.2 innings. And despite a few ups and downs, his fastball velocity vastly improved following his minor-league demotion, returning to its usual 94-95 m.p.h. range.

Swanson was among Toronto’s most valuable relievers in 2023, worth 0.8 fWAR just one season after registering a career-high 1.7 rating in his final season with the Seattle Mariners. But he proved how volatile the reliever position can be each year, earning a minus-0.7 rating this past season.

Much of the right-hander’s fate will likely depend on how management values this winter’s reliever market. Even so, his chances of returning under his final season of club control appear relatively strong.

Prediction: Tendered

Zach Pop

2024 salary: $750,000

Projected ’25 salary: $1 million

Given that Pop will be out of minor-league options next season and has yet to stick in the majors, it’d be somewhat surprising if he were tendered a contract for 2025.

Purely on stuff, the 28-year-old remains an intriguing arm, one the Blue Jays hoped could develop more swing-and-miss with his sinker-slider pitch mix. But that hasn’t been the case in his three seasons with the organization. He punched out less than 16 per cent of his batters faced in 48.1 innings with the big-league club last season while allowing a career-worst nine home runs in that span.

Pop is an excellent ground-ball pitcher, with his mid-to-high 90s heater responsible for a 93rd-percentile ground-ball rate (54.6 per cent) in 2024. He struggled to limit hard contact, though, producing an eighth-percentile hard-hit rate against (44.5 per cent). And with the team expected to add multiple back-end relief pitchers, he’d likely be a DFA candidate next spring.

Prediction: Non-tendered

Dillon Tate

2024 salary: $1.5 million

Projected ’25 salary: $1.9 million

Two years ago, perhaps the Blue Jays could justify spending nearly $2 million on an arm like Tate’s. But coming off a year where he recorded a 4.66 ERA and 9.1-per-cent strikeout-to-walk rate difference — matching a career-worst — they only have one option here.

There could be a scenario that sees Tate return on a minor-league contract, allowing the franchise to continue its reclamation projected with the 30-year-old ground-ball specialist, who only logged 8.1 combined innings — five at triple-A, 3.1 in the majors — after being claimed off waivers from the Baltimore Orioles in September.

Prediction: Non-tendered