Aug 10, 2025; San Diego, California, USA; San Diego Padres first baseman Luis Arraez (4) gestures after hitting a single during the seventh inning against the Boston Red Sox at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Denis Poroy-Imagn Images Denis Poroy-Imagn Images

Padres All-Star Predicted to Land Shockingly Low Contract in Free Agency

Originally posted on San Diego Padres on SI
By Jason Fray | Last updated Aug 20, 2025 2:00 PM ET

Luis Arraez, 28, is going to be a free agent at the end of this season.

While the San Diego Padres have been somewhat strapped for cash, re-signing the mercurial talent should be a major priority. Arraez is about as good of a contact hitter as there is in the game. He can be slotted essentially anywhere in the lineup, and he's functioned quite well as a table setter for some of the more powerful bats in the lineup.

With his impending free agency on the horizon, is there a chance the front office would let him walk?

Zachary D. Rymer wrote a piece for Bleacher Report where he analyzes the best free agents in this upcoming class along with added commentary on what type of deals they may get.

In the case of Arraez, Rymer had a very interesting breakdown of the All-Star hitter — first starting with the strengths he demonstrates at the plate.

"[Arraez] is leading all hitters in both strikeout rate (2.6 percent) and overall contact rate (96.4 percent). This is also going to be his seventh straight season with a line-drive percentage of at least 25.0, whereas the league average is 19.7 percent. Shockingly, though, Arraez has only had one month in which he hit over .300. And even by his standards, an aver age exit velocity of 85.6 mph is dangerously low. Even he sat north of 88 mph for three years in a row between 2021 and 2023."

Rymer then speaks about the type of deal Arraez could get out on the open market. Based on the intel, the Padres may have a chance to get him back on a team-friendly contract.

"As Arraez doesn't hit for power, steal bases or play good defense, it will be interesting to see how much teams value his ability to put the ball in play. Given he's probably overpaid even with a $14 million salary this year, don't be surprised if even a multi-year deal lands him well short of $100 million."

It makes sense for the Padres to bring him back into the fold. For some of his faults, Arraez is still a very valuable contributor considering his consistency at the plate and also his bat-to-ball skills. Those are two essential elements for any team annually competing in October.