Sep 24, 2025; San Diego, California, USA; San Diego Padres starting pitcher Dylan Cease (84) delivers during the second inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Denis Poroy-Imagn Images Denis Poroy-Imagn Images

Padres' Dylan Cease Predicted to End Free Agency With $125 Million Deal

Originally posted on San Diego Padres on SI
By Jason Fray | Last updated Oct 21, 2025 4:30 PM ET

Soon-to-be free agent Dylan Cease is a very polarizing player.

On one hand, Cease has tantalizing stuff. Few players in the league are able to command six pitches with a fastball sitting in the high 90s. However, the reality is that Cease hasn't produced in correspondence to the elite talent.

He's 65-58 in his career as a starter with a 3.88 ERA. Those numbers aren't poor by any stretch. Having said that, there's a thought they should be better at the same time.

Cease is coming off a 2024 season with the San Diego Padres in which he went 8-12 with a 4.55 ERA. With no extension agreed upon during the regular season, there's no certainty he'd return to San Diego.

According to Joel Reuter of Bleacher Report, Cease's age (29) coupled with his talent should net him a very lucrative multi-year deal courtesy of one pitching-starved ballclub.

"At surface level, Dylan Cease did not have a very successful contract year for the Padres, but his 3.56 FIP and a 29.8 percent strikeout rate that ranked third among qualified starters still paints him as an impact, frontline starter.

"At 29 years old and with true swing-and-miss stuff, he might have the most upside going forward of any starting pitcher in this class, and a solid start against the Cubs in the NL Wild Card Series also helped erase a dreadful 2024 postseason performance."

Baseball Savant

Cease is then projected to cash in on a five-year deal worth approximately $125 million. The hypothetical deal is not too dissimilar from one another pitcher in the NL West received a few years ago.

"This contract would put him a tick below the five-year, $136.5 million extension that Tyler Glasnow signed after he was traded to the Dodgers, and those two have comparable profiles as swing-and-miss starters who are ace-level performers when everything is clicking."

Cease's inconsistency with the Friars likely results in him seeking a new home elsewhere. It's not inconceivable for Cease to re-up with the team. However, the team has a large number of impending impact free agents potentially leaving the ballclub.

Fellow starter Michael King may be the name more realistic in re-signing. The team is also banking on veteran Joe Musgrove returning healthy after sitting out all of 2025 recovering from elbow surgery.