Padres Expected to Make Lucas Giolito Decision This Weekend

Giolito, 31, signed a one-year deal with the Padres on April 22, with a mutual option for 2027. The right-hander went unsigned during the winter despite putting up solid numbers with the Boston Red Sox last year, going 10-4 with a 3.41 ERA and 2.0 fWAR in 26 starts and 145 innings pitched.

There were likely two reasons why teams were hesitant to sign Giolito during the offseason. One of them is his underlying metrics from 2025; according to Statcast, Giolito had an expected ERA of 5.06 while allowing a 90.3 mph average exit velocity. His chase (26.8%), whiff (22.9%), strikeout (19.7%) and walk rates (9.1%) all ranked in the 31st percentile or worse among all qualified MLB starters.

The second and more serious reason is Giolito's injury history. He missed the entire 2024 season recovering from Tommy John surgery, started the 2025 campaign on the injured list due to a hamstring strain, and suffered a right flexor strain just before the 2025 postseason that prevented him from pitching in the AL Wild Card Series that Boston ultimately lost.

Regardless of these concerns, the Padres are willing to take a flyer on Giolito because they greatly need the rotation depth. San Diego's starting unit ranks just 24th in total innings pitched with 197 frames, causing them to heavily rely on their vaunted bullpen. Vasquez, Walker Buehler and Michael King are the Friars' only three arms to have logged more than 30 innings on the young season. To keep the bullpen fresh as the season rolls on, they will need Giolito to reliably eat innings.

Due to missing spring training, the 31-year-old righty ramped up by making four starts with the Padres' minor league affiliates, two each with the Single-A Lake Elsinore Storm and Double-A San Antonio Missions. Giolito pitched six shutout innings on only three hits and no walks in his last start, which indicates that he's ready to go.

Entering his 10th major league season, Giolito holds a career 71-66 record with a 4.30 ERA, 4.41 FIP, 1.26 WHIP, 1,198 strikeouts and 15.7 fWAR in 1,158.2 innings pitched.