Padres Rotation Showing Flashes of Dominance, Undervalued Thus Far

The San Diego Padres went into this season with some major question marks in their rotation. They had a possibly formidable 1-2 punch in Nick Pivetta and Michael King, but not much depth behind that. A swarm of low-risk pickups before spring training fixed the depth issue, but whether or not those pitchers could be serviceable was another question entirely.

But, as of Wednesday, Padres starters have combined for a very serviceable 3.83 ERA. Outside of Walker Buehler (7 ER, 6 2/3 IP), the metrics are even better, with a 3.08 mark. The rotation looks borderline elite, even in a division crowded with aces like Logan Webb and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Can they keep it up?

Padres Rotation Worries Plagued Offseason

For the entirety of this offseason, any conversation surrounding San Diego was had with one major caveat: the starting rotation looks rough. And it did.

The Friars had Pivetta (an ace workhorse in 2025 with no certainty of repeating his career year), King (bouncing back from an injury-plagued year), Joe Musgrove (rehabbing his way back from Tommy John surgery), Randy Vásquez (a back-end starter whose underlying metrics made it seem impossible he could find success again), and some (at the time) unknown fifth starter.

That forced the Padres into an underdog role before the season had even started, with most projections predicting them to finish fourth in the National League West. If San Diego wanted to beat out those projections, the rotation needed to be elite.

The starting group had obvious upside. For each of the four pitchers’ aforementioned faults, they had elite streaks in them. Pivetta had shown a consistent change last year, King was only one season removed from an elite 2024 campaign, Musgrove had come back from surgery once before and looked good, and Vásquez was coming off of a career year as a starter.

To bolster their depth, the Friars signed Buehler, Griffin Canning, Marco Gonzales, Germán Márquez, and Triston McKenzie to battle it out for the fifth spot in the rotation. With news that Musgrove would miss the start of the season, that became two spots. Those spots would eventually go to Buehler and Márquez.

Early Offensive Slump Casts Doubt on Starters

The offense struggled to begin the year, making it difficult to see anything good in the team. Those offensive problems led to a 2-4 record in the Opening Week homestand despite the starters pitching quite well.

After an offseason of trade rumors, Pivetta found himself the Opening Day starter for San Diego. He was difficult to watch, giving up six runs. It felt like the worst nightmares of the Friar Faithful coming to life. But, since then, he’s calmed those Opening Day jitters, allowing only two runs over 10 innings.

King looked vintage in his first start over five innings before having difficulty finishing his outings well in his most recent starts. Vásquez willed the Friars to their first win of the season, pitching six innings of two-hit ball. He followed it up with a one-run outing against the Boston Red Sox.

Buehler has been the sole blemish of this quintet, allowing seven runs over only 6 2/3 innings. He’s had good stuff but struggled to go deep in games. Márquez bounced back from his rough debut with a scoreless five innings against the Pittsburgh Pirates. The former Colorado Rockies ace certainly has the tenure to remain in the fifth spot of the Padres rotation once Canning or Musgrove return from injury, but it remains to be seen if he can keep up.

As Rehab Wraps Up, Starters Eyeing Return

Speaking of Canning and Musgrove, when are those two coming back to the majors? Canning’s rehab assignment is getting underway. This weekend, he pitched 2 2/3 innings of one-run ball with four strikeouts. If he can continue that ramp-up, he’ll hopefully be a contributor to the club by the end of this month.

Musgrove, on the other hand, is not close to a return … or maybe he is? There’s no timeline currently for his return to the mound, and he’s yet to pitch since March 4. His rehab ended there, as he didn’t respond well after that, and that was the end of his return to MLB for the time being.

But, to be honest, San Diego has yet to need either of them. They’ll surely need them soon, but (for now) they’re pitching fantastically. In the coming dog days of summer — when they’re ready to return from injury — they’ll be ready and able to contribute to this Padres club.