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Padres Sign Lucas Giolito: What to Make of Move

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Padres Sign Lucas Giolito: What to Make of Move

Originally posted on New Baseball Media
By Chris Studley | Last updated Apr 22, 2026 2:42 PM ET

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Almost a month into the 2026 MLB season, the final big-name free agent came off the board. Lucas Giolito, who spent 2024 and 2025 with the Red Sox, officially signed with the Padres on April 22. The California-born righty will look to provide some much-needed depth for an injury-depleted rotation.

A Look at Giolito

The Red Sox played the long game with Lucas Giolito, who signed a two-year deal with Boston in the 2023-24 offseason. Boston didn’t have much of a choice, as the righty missed all of 2024 and then was hurt again to start 2025. However, the veteran righty put together a good year in 2025.

Giolito posted a 3.41 ERA across 26 starts last season with the Red Sox. He didn’t allow a ton of home runs in Boston, as his 1.06 HR/9 overall ranked in the top-third of MLB. His .301 wOBA ranked 47th among starting pitchers with 100+ IP thrown last season.

After a year away from a Major League mound, some of the returns were fine on paper. His walk rate (9.1% BB%) was where it was in 2023, albeit worse than the league average. The fastball velocity was on par with where it was in 2023, as well.

Giolito’s fastball is not an overpowering one. He averaged 93 MPH last season, fluctuating as all pitchers do. He hit as high as 96 MPH and as low as 89 MPH. Giolito’s power as a pitcher comes from his ability to deceive and mix it up with hitters.

It’s a fastball that had a lot of carry, often exceeding 20” of induced vertical action. High arm slot, short arm action, and a tough-to-pick-up fastball make it a good pitch when executed up in the zone well. It did get around a lot in 2023, as Giolito gave up 19 home runs off the four-seamer three years ago. Only six fastballs resulted in a home run last season.

Obviously, his fastball will get tagged up and in the middle. But pitchers have to be there at some point, whether on purpose or by accident. But as the numbers suggest, the fastball works well up. (via New Baseball Media)

His two primary secondary offerings are a slider and a changeup. Both have been swing-and-miss pitches for him in the past. Giolito’s changeup doesn’t pop from a movement standpoint but it does work, as that pitch differs in speed about 10-12 MPH off the heater.

Per ESPN, the Padres’ deal with Lucas Giolito comes with a mutual option. The right-hander, who received a one-year deal, was optioned to Low-A Lake Elsinore after the move.

Analysis

For those wondering why a pitcher with a sub-4.00 ERA was on the open market until the end of April, just know that today’s game is different compared to the past.

Teams, particularly analytically-driven ones, love pitchers who get strikeouts and swing-and-miss. Giolito wasn’t an average pitcher in either regard. He’s also not a pitcher who, unlike some of the other non-plus strikeout pitchers who have thrived in today’s age, doesn’t get a lot of ground balls or chase out of the zone.

Giolito is a pitcher in the sense that he can’t just hurl his way to strikeouts. And for the most part, last season, he was effective.

The Padres’ rotation has been dealing with injuries. It’s unclear when Joe Musgrove will come back, and the same can be said for Nick Pivetta. Griffin Canning is still on the IL, and Yu Darvish is not an option this season.

San Diego has done well thus far thanks to a cast of characters that includes Walker Buehler, German Marquez, and Randy Vasquez, the latter of whom has been a very pleasant surprise.

Once Giolito is built up, he’ll likely join that group. A fly-ball pitcher, he could benefit from a friendlier pitcher environment and a good defensive outfield.

This article first appeared on New Baseball Media and was syndicated with permission.

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