Pair of Blue Jays Extensions Have Them Looking Like Geniuses

Some might flinch at the mere thought of a half-billion dollar contract and the uncertainty that could derail it in the future, but it’s becoming apparent that the least of fans’ worries will be Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s performance. This season, he leads all first basemen in runs (83), on-base percentage (.396), wOBA (.385), wRC+ (149), and fWAR (3.9).

Slashing .298/.396/.498 across 124 games and 545 plate appearances, he’s undoubtedly been one of the league’s premier hitters. Better yet, in Guerrero’s 30 games since the All-Star break, he’s hitting .362/.435/.690 with 9 home runs and 23 RBI’s.

His second-half performance last season was one of the greatest in recent memory, and it seems as though “second-half Vlad” will continue his rampage in 2025.

Vladdy’s Baseball Savant page is filled with red bubbles and ranks in the upper echelons of MLB, ranking in the 98th percentile in Batting Run Value, which is good enough for the fifth-best mark in baseball this year behind Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Kyle Schwarber, and Juan Soto.

He’s consistently been one of the best power hitters in the league, notching ranks in the top two percent of MLB hitters in maximum exit velocity every single year of his career (2019-2025). In particular, Vlad has been crushing fastballs, with a Batting Run Value of +12 on four-seam fastballs and +14 on sinkers this season.

The Blue Jays signed Guerrero to his $500 million extension early in the season, and this was largely due to his performance last year in 2024. He slashed .323/.396/.544 with 30 home runs and 103 RBIs in what was his best season since his breakout 48-home run 2021 campaign where he finished runner-up to Shohei Ohtani in American League MVP voting.

Vladdy will be a Blue Jay through the 2039 season, and he’s already had five All-Star nominations, two Silver Slugger Awards, and a Gold Glove Award. Moreover, he’s won an All-Star Game MVP, a Home Run Derby, and has received MVP votes in three separate seasons.

He’s already got over 1,000 hits, over 180 home runs, over 500 runs and RBIs, and 20.7 fWAR in his career.

It’s safe to say that if he retired today, Guerrero would be one of the most memorable Blue Jays of all time. Well, he’s got 14 more seasons to expand on that, and Jays fans are thrilled to watch one of the league’s most exciting players for many more years.

Alejandro Kirk (5 years, $85 million)

Alejandro Kirk has been one of the premier catchers in the game ever since his debut in 2020, and he was locked up to what many might call a team-friendly contract earlier in 2025.

This season, Kirk has been MLB’s second-most valuable catcher behind Cal Raleigh of the Seattle Mariners, who is having a historic season behind the plate.

So far in his MLB career, Kirk is slashing .271/.346/.396 with 46 home runs, 243 RBIs, and 468 hits across 535 MLB games. In 2022, Kirk was named the starting catcher for the American League in the All-Star game and was awarded a Silver Slugger Award in the same season for his ability at the plate.

His 3.5 fWAR this season is his second-highest single-season mark, only behind his 2022 campaign where he finished with 4.3 fWAR.

He even did what many thought was impossible: He earned his first career stolen base on August 15 against the Texas Rangers. Despite having a sprint speed in the second (yes, second) percentile this season, his strong season seems to know no bounds.

But as much as he’s known for his bat and not so much for his speed, Kirk’s fielding is what makes this contract worth so much more than anyone could’ve imagined.

The art of pitch framing, or stealing strikes from umpires as some might say, seems to be natural for Kirk, who has consistently performed among the best in this metric since his big-league debut.

He only sits behind framing wizard Patrick bailey of the San Francisco Giants in Catcher Framing Runs this season but tops him in some other framing metrics. For instance, when considering the region of 0-1 inches off the plate, Kirk gets 45% of pitches in this region called a strike compared to Bailey’s 36%. For reference, the league average is just 30%.

In terms of blocking, Kirk is simply on a different planet than other catchers around the league. Baseball Savant’s statistic of Blocks Above Average (BAA) determines a catcher’s ability to block balls in the dirt in comparison to the league average. Kirk has 14 BAA compared to second-place catchers Danny Jansen of the Milwaukee Brewers and Dillon Dingler of the Detroit Tigers (10 BAA).

Kirk’s story is an awe-inspiring one, as he hadn’t played above the High-A level before being promoted to the MLB level in the admittedly-strange 2020 season. The 5’8″, 245-pound player known in adoration as “Captain Kirk” has completely endeared himself to Blue Jays fans, quickly becoming one of the team’s most recognizable and memorable players.

Closing Thoughts

Blue Jays General Manager Ross Atkins did a great job inking both Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Alejandro Kirk to long-term extensions earlier this year, and they’re both looking like great deals already. While it’s true that nobody knows what the future may hold, what’s certain now is that at least for the next few seasons, both of these players are holding up their ends of the bargain.

The Blue Jays are in the midst of a historic season for the franchise, and Guerrero and Kirk are at the forefront of the team’s success. The Jays have one of MLB’s best offenses, and they might be in contention for the best offensive team this season.

If you told this to a Toronto fan prior to the season, you’d never be believed…but the Toronto Blue Jays are a team to watch in 2025. They could very well make some big waves in October, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Alejandro Kirk will absolutely be leading the charge.