It was the worst of times for Spencer Strider when he took the mound for the Atlanta Braves Tuesday night. He allowed a season-high eight earned runs over four innings of work.
A slumping Mets team got the chance to correct course in a big way, pummeling the Braves en route to a 13-5 final.
For a long stretch, he was getting going again. He had a 2.91 ERA in nine starts between June 14 and July 28. Just like that, he’s allowed 13 runs in his last 8 2/3 innings pitched. It’s become a brutal reminder that he’s still not too far removed from the elbow surgery and missing time after that with a hamstring injury.
While it adds to the frustrations of the 2025 season, being patient with Strider’s return to form is necessary. He’s not broken by any means. He’s simply learning a new way to pitch. The average velocity of his fastball has declined over the last few seasons and has dropped sharply since his return this year.
In 2022, his fastball sat consistently at just over 98 mph. The following year, it dropped to 97.1 mph. Now, post surgery, it’s at 95.6 mph. That ability to blow the pitch by hitters is no longer an option, and it shows in the metrics.
According to Baseball Savant, his fastball’s whiff rate is down from 28.7% during his All-Star 2023 season to 15.5% this season. Some of the velocity could return. But he can't count on that. A dip in velocity forces a pitch to adapt.
His slider has arguably suffered more during this stretch. Strider is using the slider more than he ever has while he works to balance out his pitch mix more. The opponent slugging percentage on the pitch is up from .269 in 2023 to .408 in 2025. He’s allowed a career-high six home runs off the pitch this season.
As he reinvents himself, you’re going to see spikes like these early on. As he figures his new approach out and simply gets further away from his injuries, this will start to sort itself out.
What we have yet to see is how Strider looks after a normal offseason of workouts and a normal Spring Training. Even though we saw him in Spring Training this year, that doesn’t mean it was what pitchers typically go through.
It’s understandable to be frustrated. Early on, he looked like he didn’t miss a beat in the Spring, and then he was on a run for a time during the season. But recoveries have both highs and lows. Few get lucky and are electric immediately.
This season is already in a lame duck period. The best way to utilize it is to allow those who are expected to be back next season to iron out what they can.
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