Pete Alonso Orioles Signing: 2026 Fantasy Impacts

Camden Yards Power Surge

• Park HR Factor: 105 vs. Citi's 104, per Statcast, which also projected Alonso for 45 HR in Baltimore vs. 36 in Queens and 38 actual for 2025. Meaning, theoretically, Alonso could’ve had 47 HR last season if he was already with the Orioles.
• More Doubles: Camden’s more double-friendly as well (97 2B PF vs. 89), which will complement Alonso’s improving 2B numbers (career-high 41 in '25) and giving more upside for AVG, RBI, and R.
• No Serious Age Decline Yet: At age 31, there won’t be a massive jump in numbers and there is a risk of decline, but said risk should be minimal. In fact, Alonso’s exit velo went up 2 mph to 93 mph average in ‘25.

Lineup Protection Perks

• Young Studs: Alonso’s expected to bat fourth behind potential future superstar Gunnar Henderson (30 HR projected) and former No. 1 overall pick and top prospect Jackson Holliday (.300 AVG upside).
• Veteran Backup: Fellow big bat addition Taylor Ward (36 HR, 103 RBI with Angels in ‘25) should be taking his cuts behind Baltimore’s new first baseman.
• Mets Comparison: Alonso had 126 RBI in '25 as part of a strong Mets lineup with Soto ahead of him, but the mix of youth in front and veteran power behind in Baltimore could create a better floor.
• Minimal Competition: Ryan Mountcastle is expected to go to the trade block following the signing, opening 1B for Alonso, but crowding DH for him and catcher Adley Rutschman.
• O’s PItchers Benefit: Orioles relievers like Ryan Helsley should be targeted for holds/saves upside, as should starters like Dean Kremer and Trevor Rogers for wins.
  

Projected Stats and ADP Shifts for 2026

With this all factored in, plus the fact he’ll face better pitching but more favorable parks in the AL East vs. the NL West, here’s what we expect of Alonso in 2026 for fantasy and where we feel he should be valued in drafts.

Category Projections Breakdown

• Fantasy Stats: 36-42 HR | 125-135 RBI | .268-.275 AVG | 90-100 R | 1-3 SB
• Extra Stats: 150-160 K | .850-.900 OPS | .365 wOBA

Draft Value Adjustments

• ADP: Climbs to 15-25 from 40-50, making him a Round 2 to early Round 3 target in roto.
• Points Leagues: Fade if his OBP slips below .340 as the season progresses, but he’ll have strong value in HR/RBI formats.
• Trade Asset: Stack him with an Orioles arm or two (W, HLD, and SV upside) for midseason flips.

Ripple Effects on Orioles Teammates

So, Alonso should see at least an equal level of production if not an increase with his new team. But what about those around him for fantasy?

Winners in the Lineup

• Gunnar Henderson: Protection boosts his RBI upside to 110+, HR 32-35.
• Jackson Holliday: Alonso in the cleanup spot elevates his R/RBI to 100/90.
• Adley Rutschman: Should unlock full C eligibility, though fewer DH ABs drop counting stats 10%.

Potential Losers and Trades

• Ryan Mountcastle: Expected trade bait for pitching with .240/.320/.420 slash line projection.
• Coby Mayo: The move blocks the Top-100 corner infield prospect’s path and could lead to a trade. We recommend he be stashed in dynasty.

Before you continue, if you’re curious to learn about the ripple effects of another stunning Mets free agency departure or want to learn more about some of the other top players in free agency, give these other articles a look.

• What a Dodgers Deal for Edwin Diaz Means for Fantasy Baseball in 2026
• Top 5 Free Agents to Target for Fantasy Baseball 2026 – Who, Where, and Why
• Top 5 Free Agent Starting Pitchers for Fantasy Baseball 2026: Who’s Available & Where They Could Land

League-Wide Draft Implications

Now, how will this affect players in both the highly-competitive AL East and MLB on the whole? How should you treat them in your 2026 drafts or on waivers?

AL East Arms Take Hit

• Loaded With Offense: Already tough hitting matchups across the division will only get tougher. All stat projections for Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Rays pitchers should be adjusted accordingly.

NL East Arms Get Breather (For Now)

• One Less Threat: With Alonso gone from the Mets and Schwarber already a Phillie in 2025, hurlers for the Phillies, Marlins, Braves, and Nationals will have it a bit easier. That could change based on how the rest of free agency pans out, though, and fantasy managers must be vigilant.

Waiver and Trade Targets

• Mountcastle Post-Trade: Will be a value buy if he lands in any hitter's park where he’ll see regular playing time.
• Mets 1B Replacements (Mark Vientos?): Budget player at the position with Citi suppression for any non-power bat.

Conclusion: Pete Alonso’s Orioles Deal Will Allow For Continued Elite 1B Production in 2026 Fantasy Baseball

The Orioles’ splash for Pete Alonso cements him as a 2026 fantasy cornerstone. Blending his power reliability with lineup leverage equal to if not better than the Mets and a stronger home Park Factor will offset any age decline and tougher divisional pitching matchups for fantasy gold this upcoming season. Monitor Spring Training for role/lineup clarity to play it safe as with all free agents changing teams, but lock him in early to ride the wave if everything holds. Adjust your mocks today.

People Also Ask:

• Q: What's Pete Alonso's projected ADP after the Orioles' signing?
  A: 15-25 overall; rounds 2-3 in 12-team roto, up from 40-50 pre-deal.
• Q: How does Camden Yards affect Alonso's power?
  A: Boosts HR 10-15%; 1.05 factor for RHB vs. Citi's 0.95.
• Q: Does Alonso hurt Orioles fantasy values?
  A: No; elevates Henderson/RBI, but crowds Rutschman DH ABs.
• Q: Is Alonso a buy or fade in 2026 drafts?
  A: Buy in HR/RBI leagues; monitor K% at age 31.
• Q: Trade implications for Mountcastle?
  A: Likely moved for pitching; value in hitter parks post-trade.
• Q: Alonso's RBI upside with the new lineup?
  A: 125-140 projected; bats behind top AL talents.