Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres prediction, pick, odds: Who has advantage in the NLCS?

So, who has the advantage? Well, it's really hard to say. Neither team won its division, but that doesn't matter. Both teams have gotten hot at the right time, and both are capable of winning this series. The Phillies did beat the Padres four out of seven times during the regular season, but does that really matter? No, not really, especially with such a small sample size.

Before I give you my answer, let's compare and contrast the two. Both offenses can flat out swing it, but Philly does have the slightly better offense, and more complete lineup.

Not only have the Phillies scored the most runs so far this postseason, they also have the best hitter in the playoffs in Bryce Harper. The Phillies have scored at least six runs in four of their six playoff games, and combined to score 17 runs between games three and four. Meanwhile, Harper leads all hitters this postseason in batting average (.435), hits (10) and OPS (1.437), and is tied for first this postseason with three home runs and three doubles.

Yardbarker Quick Pick

We highlighted above that we like the Phillies to win, but we also like the over, despite the strong pitchers on the rubber. Philadelphia is over 6.5 runs in four of six postseason games, and San Diego is over this total in five of seven. We'll take over 6.5 runs here. — Griffin Carroll, Yardbarker

Looking for the latest odds on the NLCS between the Phillies and the Padres? Click here for LIVE updates on OddsChecker!

Tuesday, 8:03 p.m ET
Philadelphia Phillies: +1 (-161) spread, +108 moneyline, over 6.5 (-120)
@ San Diego Padres: -1 (+133) spread, -120 moneyline, under 6.5 (+110)

Talk about raking. The Phillies signed Harper to the largest contract in franchise history back in 2019 — 13-year, $330 million — and so far, he's lived up to that contract. Harper won the NL MVP in 2021, and has been an All-Star in two of his first three seasons since signing with Philadelphia. But you know what will make this contract completely worth it? A World Series. And Harper is doing everything he can to make that happen. And don't expect that to change in the NLCS.

But don't sleep on the Padres' offense. They have plenty of sluggers — Juan Soto, Manny Machado, Josh Bell, etc. — but they have yet to outperform the Phillies' offense so far this postseason. Machado may be the second-best hitter so far this postseason, and bottom of the order hitters like Trent Grisham and Austin Nola are both hitting nearly .400 this postseason, but Philly's lineup is still more complete. Philadelphia outscored San Diego during the regular season, and also had a higher slugging percentage and OPS than the Padres during the regular season. And that wasn't by coincidence.

But what San Diego lacks in offense compared to Philly, they make up in pitching. The Phillies have an elite ace in Zack Wheeler, and Aaron Nola is a solid No. 2 starter, but that's where it kind of ends for Philly. San Diego has three No. 1 caliber starters in Joe Musgrove, Blake Snell and Yu Darvish, and the Padres bullpen might be the best of the teams still alive.

Josh Hader is a multi-inning closer who has been a nightmare for opposing left-handed hitters, and Robert Suarez has yet to allow a run over six innings in relief this postseason. If the Padres have the lead past the seventh, Philadelphia is going to have its work cut out for them. On the flip side, Philly has had a really hard time shutting the door all year long. The Phillies bullpen finished with the seventh-highest ERA, and tied for the NL lead in blown saves during the regular season. They've been better so far in the playoffs, but the bullpen is definitely an issue for Philadelphia.

And finally, baserunning and defense. Philadelphia finished in the lower half of the league in just about every defensive stat, and San Diego for the most part, finished in the top half. So, defensively, the Padres definitely have the edge. Especially in the outfield. 

But the Phillies can run, and the Padres really can't. Philadelphia finished fifth in the majors in stolen bases, while San Diego finished with the second-fewest stolen bases in the NL. And that may be a problem for the Padres. Philadelphia's offense has been so good this postseason that they simply haven't had to run, but they can, and I expect them to in this series. But don't expect San Diego to. Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto led all catchers in caught stealing percentage, and no one on the Padres stole more than 12 bases during the regular season.

With all that being said, we're finally ready to pick our winner for this NLCS. And we're going with the Phillies. I went against Philly not just once, but twice this postseason, and I won't let it happen a third time. These Phillies have caught fire at the right time, and even with San Diego's elite starting staff, betting against Philadelphia is a huge mistake.

The Phillies are hitting everything in sight, Wheeler and Nola have been great atop the starting rotation, and the bullpen has done just enough to help Philadelphia win. Expect some high-scoring games in this series, and ultimately, for Philly's big bats — Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Jean Segura, Nick Castellanos, etc. — to be the difference in this series. 

The Bet: Phillies over Padres (+100 odds)

Other bets for the series: NLCS Total Games (Six, +195 Odds)

NLCS MVP: Zack Wheeler (odds currently unavailable)

All odds via FanDuel