Phillies Acquire Harrison Bader

Bader, 31, has been a solid big leaguer for years. He is one of the best outfield defenders in the league, with career tallies of 63 Defensive Runs Saved and 76 Outs Above Average. That DRS total is fifth-best among outfielders since the start of 2017, while the OAA total tops the leaderboard.

His offense has been up-and-down but he’s currently on pace to have his best season at the plate. In 307 plate appearances, he already has 12 home runs. Only once in his career has he hit more than that, which was the 16 he hit in 2021. His 26.4% strikeout rate is a bit high but his 8.8% walk rate is his best mark in years.

On the whole, he has a .258/.339/.439 line this year. His 117 wRC+, a career high, indicates he has been 17% better than league average at the plate this year. Thanks to ten stolen bases and some quality glovework, he’s already been worth 2.0 wins above replacement on the year, in the eyes of FanGraphs.

The Twins have pivoted to sell mode recently. They are 51-57 and 5.5 games out of a playoff spot. This the second deal they have lined up with the Phillies, as they already sent Jhoan Durán to Philadelphia. They also traded Chris Paddack to the Tigers and Brock Stewart to the Dodgers.

Bader has long been seen as likely to go, since he’s an impending free agent. He signed a one-year, $6.25MM deal with the Twins in the offseason. That guarantee came in the form of a $750K signing bonus, a $4MM salary, and a $1.5MM buyout on a mutual option. Mutual options are essentially never picked up by both sides, which is why Bader has been viewed as a rental. His buyout can also increase via plate appearance incentives. He would add $200K at 400, 425 and 450 plate appearances, then $450K at 475 and 500. As mentioned, he’s currently at 307 plate appearances.

His deal also has a $500K assignment bonus if he’s traded. Per Bobby Nightengale of the Minnesota Star Tribune, the Twins aren’t including any money in this deal, so it seems the Phils will take on the remaining salary and the buyout on the option. There’s about $1.3MM of salary left. The buyout, as mentioned, is $1.5MM but can increase.

Money aside, Bader is a great fit for the Phillies. They have been looking for outfield help and right-handed bat. Bader ticks both boxes. Nick Castellanos is cemented in right, but he’s a league-average bat with horrible defensive metrics. Johan Rojas is the opposite, as he’s a great defender who doesn’t hit. Brandon Marsh and Max Kepler are a bit less extreme. They’re both good defenders in a corner but a bit stretched in center. They both can hit but are left-handed hitters who do more damage with the platoon advantage. Kepler is also now battling a triceps injury, per Lochlahn March of the Philadelphia Inquirer.

Bader has largely been playing left field for the Twins out of deference to Byron Buxton. He should be able to pivot back to center for the Phils. That should allow for Rojas, Kepler and Marsh to all be used more selectively. Bader has pretty even platoon splits this year but his career splits are more extreme, with a .248/.315/.461 line versus lefties and a .242/.307/.374 slash against righties. Kepler recently expressed some dissatisfaction with being platooned but he hasn’t helped his cause with a .196/.250/.314 line against southpaws this year.

Mendez, 21, was originally a Brewers prospect. He came to the Phils in a November 2023 trade which sent infielder Oliver Dunn to the Brewers. Dunn was a minor league Rule 5 pick out of the Yankees’ system, making a fairly unusual trade tree for this move.

Since Mendez has come over the Phils, he’s been great at the plate. He spent last year at High-A and has been at Double-A this year. He has stepped to the plate 722 times in those two seasons with a 12.7% walk rate, 13.3% strikeout rate, .287/.380/.412 batting line and 131 wRC+. Baseball America lists him as the #17 prospect in the system. Their report notes that he hits the ball incredibly hard but too often into the ground. He’s not considered a strong outfield defender, so his development as a hitter will be key.

He is eligible for the Rule 5 draft this winter. Perhaps the Phils weren’t going to add him to their 40-man roster or were on the fence about it. The Twins will need to add him this fall if they don’t want him to be exposed.

Villoria, 16, was an international signing of the Phils out of Venezuela. He just signed with the Phils this year out of for a $425K bonus and has 14 professional innings under his belt in the Dominican Summer League. His youth and inexperience naturally make him a long-term play. Baseball America notes that he can already get up to the mid-90s with his fastball and he also has a high-spin slider as well as a changeup.

For the Phils, they’re adding a bit of money to their books but they’re usually not afraid to do that and they’ve clearly got a foot on the gas pedal here. Their core players are mostly in their mid-30s, so they made a bold strike by giving up notable prospects in the Durán deal. Here, they’ve given up a few prospects but not top guys.

They are a third-time payor of the competitive balance tax and over the top tier, meaning they will face a 110% tax rate on Bader’s remaining salary and the buyout. Between the salary and buyout, he’s owed at least $2.8MM, so the Phils will also have to pay over $3MM in taxes on that.

For the Twins, they add a couple of extra prospects from a player who was set to depart in free agency anyway. It’s possible that saving money is a goal for them this week. They could have included money here to ask for a greater prospect return but didn’t do so. They also included Randy Dobnak’s contract in the Paddack deal, seemingly to save a few million bucks. They could still move Willi Castro, Danny Coulombe, Ty France and Christian Vázquez before the day is done, as they are all impending free agents. If they’re willing to move another controllable player like they did in the Duran deal, Griffin Jax could be on the move as well.

Teams like the Mets, Yankees and Dodgers were also connected to Bader in recent weeks. Those teams could pivot to guys like Steven Kwan, Luis Robert Jr., Cedric Mullins and/or Ramón Laureano, who are thought to be available today.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported the Phillies were closing in on a Bader deal for an outfield and pitching prospect. Matt Gelb of The Athletic had the return.

Photo courtesy of Matt Blewett, Jordan Johnson, Imagn Images