Pirates 2026 Rotation: So Many Arms, So Few Spots

Innings-eater Mitch Keller is right behind him as a solid No. 2. There was speculation during last year’s trade deadline and this year’s offseason that he’d be traded for a hitter. However, there’s been a surprising lack of interest in Keller. His spot on the Pirates is probably safe now that Burrows and Oviedo have been traded. In 2025, Keller was 6-15 with a 4.19 ERA, 4.02 FIP, 1.259 WHIP, and 102 ERA+. That’s not the sexiest stat line, but he’s generally kept his team in the game in most starts since his 2023 All-Star season.

Now let’s look at the candidates for the three remaining spots in the Pirates starting rotation.

A Sense of Belonging

Braxton Ashcraft was the Pirates’ second-round draft pick out of Robinson High School in Robinson, Texas. The six-foot-five, 220-pound right-hander was the Pirates’ No. 7 prospect when he was called up in May 2025. Now 26, he may have been considered old for a former prospect making his major league debut. But he missed two entire seasons: 2020, when COVID-19 canceled the minor league season, and 2022, when he was recovering from Tommy John surgery.

When Ashcraft finally made it, he looked like he belonged in the majors all along. Manager Don Kelly used him out of the bullpen at first. Ashcraft didn’t give up a run until his fifth appearance, after which he’d garnered a win and two “holds.” He was finally inserted into the starting rotation in August, although the Pirates managed his innings carefully. In 26 games, including eight starts, he was 4-4 with a 2.71 ERA, 2.78 FIP, 1.249 WHIP, and 158 ERA+. His four-seamer averaged 97 mph. He can’t be expected to maintain that Hall-of-Fame level ERA+. Or can he? I give him a 75 percent chance to open the season in the rotation.

The Lone Left-Hander

That would be six-foot-four, 235-pound Hunter Barco, 25, the Pirates’ second-round draft choice out of the University of Florida in 2022. Last season, he had a 2.81 ERA and 1.198 WHIP across two minor league levels. That’s a bit deceiving, however, as he was much better with Double-A Altoona than with Triple-A Indianapolis. Even so, the Pirates called up the former Gator in late September to see what he could do. He rewarded them with two scoreless relief appearances.

Barco features a sinking fastball and a newly developed splitter that scouts like. Barco is known as a control pitcher, but his 4.4 walks per nine innings last season in the minors were a career high. As the only left-handed candidate, at least so far, he’ll get a good look in spring training. But he may need more time in the minors to work on that control. I give him a 50-50 chance to make the team. If he makes it, he’ll likely be in the rotation.

Here Comes Bubba

Skenes was on record as saying he couldn’t wait until he and Bubba Chandler were teammates on the Pirates. The six-foot-three, 218-pound right-handed Chandler is the Pirates’ No. 2 prospect. The 23-year-old was the Pirates’ third-round pick out of North Oconee High School in Bogart, Georgia in 2021. Plans for Chandler to be a two-way player were quickly scrapped. Strictly focusing on pitching has worked well for him, to say the least. His fastball averages 97 mph, and he features plus secondary pitches with his slider and changeup.

The Pirates called up Chandler in August and used him out of the bullpen before putting him into the starting rotation in September. In seven games, including four starts, he was 4-1 with a save. He gave up 14 runs in 31 1/3 innings. The resulting 4.02 ERA was distorted by a disastrous first major league start, when he gave up nine runs in 2 2/3 innings to the Milwaukee Brewers as Kelly tried to coax a long outing from him. That was his shortest outing, even counting relief appearances. He navigated major league lineups well, going through them a second and third time. It doesn’t appear that Chandler has much more to prove in Triple-A, despite posting a 4.05 ERA and 1.480 WHIP at Indy last year. I give him an 85 percent chance to crack the 2026 rotation.

The Fighting Camel

Right-hander Tom Harrington, 24, was a Pirates’ first-round draft pick (36th overall) in 2022 out of Blue Creek, North Carolina’s Campbell University, whose team is the Fighting Camels (my favorite fact about Harrington). At six-foot-two, 185 pounds, and not being a particularly hard thrower, he’s not cut in the Skenes-Chandler-Ashcraft mold that the Pirates seem to prefer. But it’s the guys like Harrington who often hang around and have bright major league careers. He has an interesting five-pitch mix that includes a fastball, sweeper, slider, cutter, and curve.

Harrington was with the Pirates briefly in April and August last year. He had a rough debut at Tampa Bay, where he started and gave up six runs in four innings. He doesn’t have a relief pitcher’s “stuff,” and the Pirates did him no favors by using him in relief in his other two major league outings. All told, he gave up 15 runs on 18 hits, including three homers, and seven walks in 8 2/3 innings. Back with Indy, he posted a 5.34 ERA. His prospect ranking was once as high as No. 3, but now he’s dropped down to No. 10. For what it’s worth, I give him a five percent chance to go north with the big club. If he makes it, the Pirates should use him as a starter rather than miscasting him as a reliever again.

The Man Without Fear

Marvel Comics’ Stan Lee dubbed Daredevil “The Man Without Fear,” but Lee never met Jared Jones. At six feet even, 190 pounds, the 24-year-old throws just as hard as his bigger contemporaries on the club. During spring training, 2024, with all eyes on Skenes, the fearless Jones kept performing until he became hard to ignore. He made the Pirates starting rotation and pitched well out of the gate. His season was interrupted by an injury, and the right-hander finished 2021 at 6-8 with a 4.14 ERA and encouraging 1.192 WHIP. Jones missed all of 2025 due to elbow surgery. His offseason rehab is coming along well. He’ll be part of the major league roster but may start the season in the bullpen, as the Pirates bring him along slowly. It seems a 100 percent certainty that he’ll be in the rotation once he’s ready.

You Can’t Always Get What You Want

Among the Pirates starting rotation candidates, only Keller has more major league experience than Carmen Mlodzinski. The 26-year-old right-hander, who stands at six-foot-two, 220 pounds, was a first-round pick of the Pirates (31st overall) out of the University of South Carolina in the 2020 June Amateur Draft. Mlodzinski came up in June 2023 and quickly established himself as a reliable high-leverage option out of the bullpen, earning 10 “holds” and a save while posting a 2.25 ERA. He got off to a rough start in 2024, charged with two losses and a blown save in his first five games. Eventually, he righted himself and posted a respectable 3.38 ERA and a career-best 1.184 WHIP. During his postseason exit interview with then-manager Derek Shelton, Mlodzinski expressed a desire to start in 2025.

The Pirates gave him that opportunity, but after nine mostly rough starts, he was back in the bullpen. It’s clear that relief is a better role for Mlodzinski. Last year, he recorded a 2.15 ERA and a 1.093 WHIP while striking out 9.5 batters per nine innings as a reliever. As a starter, those figures were 4.99, 1.521, and 6.7, respectively. I mention him here as a candidate for a starting role because apparently that’s the job he wants. Hey, I want to win a Pulitzer Prize for excellence in baseball journalism. We don’t always get what we want. Mlodzinski is a sure bet to be part of the big club, but I give him about a five percent chance to be part of the rotation.

Reunions, Anybody?

A young rotation that pitches well right out of the gate and never encounters any bumps in the road is a manager’s dream. So is a rotation that stays injury-free. Unfortunately, both are pipe dreams, and for that reason, it’s not a bad idea to sign a veteran starter to a reasonable one-year deal as insurance against these occurrences. Indeed, general manager Ben Cherington is on record as pursuing such an opportunity.

The local media have suggested a reunion with a former Pirate starter, either Jose Quintana or Tyler Anderson, both left-handers. Either would be a good addition. I’ll throw out another name. In my humble opinion, this hypothetical veteran starter should be one who can go to the bullpen if the young starters stay healthy and develop quickly, as hoped. Why not another former Pirate left-hander who actually has plenty of major league experience in the bullpen? I’m thinking of Martín Pérez, 34, a Pirate in 2024 who was dealt to the San Diego Padres at the trade deadline. After the 2024 season, he signed a one-year contract with the Chicago White Sox, where injuries limited him to 11 games.

Pérez has made 46 career appearances out of the bullpen in his 14 years, including 15 as recently as 2023. He wasn’t effective as a Pirate in 2024, going 2-5 with a 5.20 ERA and 1.651 WHIP in 16 games. But since the Pirates traded him, Pérez has put up a 3.50 ERA, a tidy 1.157 WHIP, and a 2.26 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He’s posted better career numbers as a reliever, too: a 3.73 ERA, 1.341 WHIP, and 7.5 strikeouts per nine vs. 4.45, 1.439, and 6.3, respectively, as a starter. He could probably be had for an inexpensive, incentive-laden one-year deal, perhaps even a minor league contract.

The Last Word

As I write this, there are still 37 free agent starters looking for a team, according to mlb.com’s free agent tracker. Cherington has plenty of choices beyond Anderson, Quintana, and Pérez. It will be interesting to see whether he finds a match, and with whom, or simply rolls the dice with what he has.