Pirates Could Have Difficult Paul Skenes Decision

The Pirates have made numerous additions this offseason, including power-hitters in second baseman Brandon Lowe in a trade with the Tampa Bay Rays and free agent Ryan O'Hearn.

Pittsburgh also added outfielders in Jake Mangum in the trade with the Rays and top prospect Jhostynxon García in a trade with the Boston Red Sox. They landed left-handed relief pitchers in Mason Montgomery in the trade with the Rays and Gregory Soto as a free agent too, to bolster their bullpen.

Skenes won the National League Cy Young Award in 2025, but finished with a 10-10 record, as the Pirates were one of the worst hitting teams in all of baseball, posting the worst slugging percentage and OPS, plus the least runs scored, RBI and home runs.

These additions, with the improvements of internal players like first baseman Spencer Horwitz, center fielder Oneil Cruz and right fielder Bryan Reynolds, should make the Pirates a much more potent offense and one that bolsters a great rotation.

Skenes, who has the lowest ERA of any pitcher through their first 55 starts at 1.96, will surely benefit from these additions and improvements, but there's reason that if it doesn't work out, the Pirates might decide to make a tough decision on his future.

Skenes Future Outlook with the Pirates

The 23-year old is in his final year of pre-arbitration, where the Pirates will pay him a low salary, somewhere around $1 million.

Skenes then has three years of arbitration, where his team and the Pirates will present salary ranges to a panel, who will side with either side, unless both parties come to an agreement prior.

American League Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal just won a historic arbitration case with the Detroit Tigers, making $32.5 million this season, as the Tigers filed for $19.5 million, a $13 million difference.

Skenes, unlike Skubal, is already one of the best pitchers in baseball and will command much higher salary numbers than that going forward.

That doesn't mean he'll make $30 million or more his first year of arbitration, but he will set record numbers for that.

Another issue for the Pirates is that there is an impending lockout coming on Dec. 1, unless both MLB and the players' union come to terms on a new collective bargaining agreement (CBA), which could shut down baseball for the entire 2027 season.

This means that 2026 could serve as the last full season Skenes has with the Pirates, especially if they think that those arbitration numbers are too high for them going forward.

Pittsburgh could forgo those years of arbitration with Skenes with a contract extension, but that is incredibly unlikely, not just for money reasons, but because Skenes wants to play for the team that gives him the best chance of winning.

The Pirates could trade Skenes earlier than his final year of arbitration, landing some top prospects or MLB-ready bats and pitchers that would keep the team competitive, even in the star's absence.

Pittsburgh may also decide to keep Skenes and pay him through his final year of arbitration, while also putting the best team around him, with top bats and a great pitching staff, giving him the opportunity to win a ring before becoming a free agent and going elsewhere at the end of the decade.