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Pirates Face Decision on Isiah Kiner-Falefa
USA Today Sports

With June comes trade rumors, and the Pittsburgh Pirates have decisions to make on expiring contracts, notably shortstop Isiah Kiner-Falefa. The Pirates enter Wednesday’s action with a 22-39 record. They’re in last place in the National League Central Division, 16 ½ games out of first place and 10 ½ games out of the last Wild Card spot. Every expert baseball observer and casual fan predicts the Pirates will be sellers at the trade deadline. Pirates general manager Ben Cherington insists things will turn around and the Pirates will get back in the race. However, he’s alone in that belief. Once the deadline approaches, he’ll have to either face reality or be derelict in his duty.

Pirates Face Decision on Kiner-Falefa: Keep or Trade?

Unless Cherington’s instincts are correct and the Pirates magically find themselves in contention, retaining Kiner-Falefa past the deadline makes sense only if they sign him to a contract extension or believe they can. That’s not how they usually do business. Then again, there’s a first time for everything, and the Pirates’ way hasn’t been working since 2016. He’s in the second year of a two-year, $15 million contract he signed with the Toronto Blue Jays before the Pirates obtained him in a deadline deal last year. The deal included some cash going the Pirates’ way to offset some of that cost. Kiner-Falefa had been unhappy playing for former manager Derek Shelton. He likes playing for the new manager Don Kelly. He’s a distant cousin of Pirates Hall of Famer Ralph Kiner and seemed genuinely moved to meet Ralph’s son Scott earlier this season.

The Case for Keeping Kiner-Falefa

Let’s pretend the Pirates try to persuade him to stick around. Kiner-Falefa, 30, has been one of the Pirates’ better players this season. At the close of Tuesday’s action, he’s hitting .310/.356/.393 with a 110 OPS+ and 110 wRC+. Among qualifiers, Kiner-Falefa leads the Pirates in batting average and is second in OBP. He typically bats ninth in the order, where he’s in front of the Pirates’ “big three” hitters, Oneil Cruz, Bryan Reynolds, and Andrew McCutchen. His placement in the bottom position has been the subject of debate, but it’s resulted in him scoring 21 runs, tied for second on the club.

If Not Kiner-Falefa, Who?

The Pirates don’t appear to have a major-league-ready shortstop who could step in for Kiner-Falefa. The people’s choice would be Liover Peguero, 24, who was acquired in Cherington’s first trade as Pirates GM in 2020. A Pittsburgh sports fan’s favorite players are the Pirates’ most prominent minor league prospect and the Steelers’ backup quarterback. Peguero was that prospect until Paul Skenes and, later, Bubba Chandler arrived. Peguero is still frequently mentioned when the fans chant their “play-the-kids” mantra.

Forget about Peguero. He intrigued observers when he was called up in 2023 and hit .237/.280/.374 but with a surprising seven home runs in 59 games. Obviously, he was acquired with the intent that he would be the shortstop of the future. Just as obviously, despite his merits or shortcomings, the Pirates no longer see him that way. When infielder Jared Triolo went on the injured list in early April, it was Tsung-Che Cheng to whom they turned, bypassing Peguero.

Cheng, 23, is a left-handed-hitting shortstop and the Pirates’ No. 17 prospect. The Taiwan native was the starting shortstop and leadoff hitter in this year’s Spring Breakout Game, when he had two hits. His game is making contact, getting on base, and stealing bases. However, in his brief stint with the Pirates, he was 0-for-7 and looked overmatched. He’s not lighting up Triple-A pitching either. At Indianapolis, he’s hitting .197/.306/.238. In three games with Pittsburgh before returning to Indy, Cheng looked like a smooth, slick fielder. Defensively, he might be ready for the majors now. But his offensive game needs more work. With no other shortstop in the system knocking on the door, a trade of Kiner-Falefa might mean the Pirates will drag Triolo and his .152 average out at shortstop every day. Kiner-Falefa is the best shortstop they have at present.

The Case for a Trade

To say there’s a case “against” Kiner-Falefa may be too strong. Maybe it’s more of a case for a trade. Like many players in the final year of their contract, IKF may be having a career year that he may never duplicate. Every figure in his .310/.356/.393 slash line represents a career-high. His second-best batting average was .280 in 2020. If we disregard that short season as an unrepresentative sample, his next highest was .271 the following year. For 2025, he carries a .370 BABIP, which is unsustainable. A second-half regression to the mean may be in IKF’s future. We saw it last year. Kiner-Falefa was hitting .292 with the Jays when he was acquired, but hit just .240 with the Pirates.

The Last Word

The Pirates have several players under expiring contracts, but their toughest decision lies with Kiner-Falefa. It won’t be hard to decide to deal Adam Frazier and Tommy Pham. They have no future with Pittsburgh. Based on his current production (or lack thereof), Pham may not have a future anywhere. Veteran pitcher Andrew Heaney will probably be traded, too. He’s pitched well, but so has the rest of the rotation, and somebody’s got to step aside for Chandler. There will be plenty of speculation over these next eight weeks. We’ll have plenty of it on these pages.

This article first appeared on Last Word On Sports and was syndicated with permission.

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