Pirates Named Breakout Team in 2026

Doolittle looked at their "targeted spending" with the additions of Lowe and signing O'Hearn to a two-year, $29 million deal as a "breakout key."

He has the Pirates with a baseline of 73 wins and a target win total of 83 games, plus a 29% breakout probability.

Doolittle compares the Pirates to the Kansas City Royals, who won 56 games in 2023 and then 86 games in 2024, making the playoffs.

He noted that the Royals had a few internal successes, but that they also added to the starting rotation in two free agents, Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha, who are still with the team.

Doolittle liked the additions the Pirates made, taking advantage of a strong rotation that could get them into the postseason.

"For Pittsburgh, the rotation was already the strength, and the Pirates have demonstrated a knack for identifying and developing quality relievers," Doolittle wrote.

"This was true before last season, when it seemed so clear that a modest, targeted investment in the team's offense could pay outsized dividends. We weren't talking about going after Juan Soto, just someone to lift the offense in the direction of league average.

"Last winter, it didn't happen. The Pirates picked up Spencer Horwitz in a trade but didn't sign a single free agent hitter to a multiyear contract. This winter they did -- Ryan O'Hearn -- and supplemented that with Brandon Lowe, Jake Mangum and Jhostynxon Garcia as trade acquisitions.

"Do the Pirates have a Royalesque 30-game leap in them? Doubtful. But half that gets them into the wild-card conversation."

Could Pirates Finally Make Postseason?

The Pirates have historically relied on strong team pitching for success and that gives the best chance of making the postseason.

Skenes also has veteran Mitch Keller, plus rookies in Braxton Ashcraft and Bubba Chandler in the rotation, all of whom have great strengths that dominate opposing hitting.

The Pirates bullpen also contains returners in right-handers like Justin Lawrence, Isaac Mattson, Carmen Mlodzinski and Dennis Santana, plus left-handed additions in free agent Gregory Soto on a one-year, $7.75 million deal and Mason Montgomery from the trade with the Rays.

Pittsburgh could use a left-handed starting pitcher or another top bullpen arm, but they're look strong on the pitching front heading into Spring Training.

The Pirates lineup now looks much improved as well, with Lowe at second base and O'Hearn at designated hitter or first base, plus both corner outfield spots.

Both players are also left-handed power bats, something the Pirates wanted and got this offseason.

Mangum will get a chance at the starting left field spot, but also should serve as outfield depth for a team that desperately needs it. García is still a prospect that has great power potential in the future.

Pittsburgh will benefit also with the returns of center fielder Oneil Cruz, right fielder Bryan Reynolds and first baseman Spencer Horwitz, experienced hitters that want strong, healthy 2026 campaigns.

The Pirates struggled massively from the plate in 2025, with the worst slugging percentage (.350) and OPS (.655), plus the least home runs (117), total bases (1,882), RBI (561) and runs scored (583).

An addition of a third baseman would benefit the Pirates greatly, especially if it came in someone like right-handed bat Eugenio Suárez, who hit 49 home runs last season.

If the Pirates add a little bit more to the roster, stay relatively healthy and get the production out of their additions and returners to the lineup, they have a great chance of making the postseason for the first time since 2015.