Predicting Pirates’ biggest move before MLB trade deadline

The offense is legitimate. Paul Skenes is a franchise cornerstone. Bubba Chandler and Mitch Keller round out a rotation that can beat anybody on any given night. But the Pirates’ bullpen is the single unit that could sink this team’s playoff push before it fully launches.

Pittsburgh’s relief corps ranks 22nd in MLB with a 4.49 ERA and has cratered to 26th since May 1, posting a 5.02 ERA over that stretch. That is simply not a group that can hold leads in one-run games against the Brewers, Braves, or Phillies in October.

General manager Ben Cherington has already signaled willingness to spend, the Pirates are even open to trading their Competitive Balance draft pick (No. 34 overall) to acquire the right arm, a move that underscores just how seriously Pittsburgh is treating this window. The most realistic and transformative acquisition is a proven late-inning reliever capable of working the seventh or eighth inning nightly.

Hunter Stratton was added in a minor deal with the Braves, but that’s a bridge move, not a solution. Pittsburgh needs a high-leverage arm with shutdown capability, someone like A.J. Minter of the Mets, or a controllable arm pried away from a rebuilding club. Landing one quality reliever with genuine swing-and-miss stuff would address Pittsburgh’s most urgent vulnerability before the calendar flips to August.

Luis Arraez Is the Offensive Wildcard

Here’s where it gets genuinely exciting. The Pirates are among the top fits for Luis Arraez, the three-time batting champion currently playing second base for the San Francisco Giants on a one-year deal. Arraez is having a quietly remarkable season, the Giants signed him in February, and he has delivered exactly what was advertised: an MLB-best contact rate, above-average second base defense, and an on-base machine whose floor is a .330 batting average.

For a Pirates lineup that already generates runs, Arraez would add an elite table-setter at the top of the order and give Pittsburgh a legitimate contact foil to the power-heavy bats around him. The Giants, hovering around .500 and unlikely to make a serious playoff push, have every reason to cash in a rental and collect controllable prospects.

Pittsburgh has the farm system depth to make such a deal palatable, and Arraez’s one-year contract means the Pirates wouldn’t be taking on any long-term financial risk. Jon Morosi specifically named Pittsburgh as a destination in the context of Arraez’s trade value, making this the most credible splash the Bucs could make before August 3.

What About Spencer Horwitz as a Trade Chip?

One creative wrinkle that has surfaced in Pittsburgh’s deadline calculus involves flipping internal assets to acquire more pitching. It’s been noted that Spencer Horwitz, under club control through 2028, has become an intriguing trade chip given the expected return of Oneil Cruz and the emergence of Esmerlyn Valdez in right field.

With Ryan O’Hearn capable of covering first base, Horwitz becomes redundant, and his combination of contact skills and club control could land Pittsburgh a quality controllable reliever rather than a rental.

If the Pirates land Arraez at second base and flip Horwitz for a shutdown bullpen arm, this front office will have executed one of the cleanest deadline double-plays of the 2026 season. The franchise is at an inflection point, one aggressive move separates Pittsburgh from being a Wild Card hopeful and becoming a genuine October threat for the first time in a generation.