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Cincinnati Reds relief pitcher Emilio Pagan (15) smiles after the final out of the ninth inning of the MLB National League game between the Cincinnati Reds and the Pittsburgh Pirates at Great American Ball Park in downtown Cincinnati on Thursday, Sept. 25, 2025. The Reds won, 2-1. Sam Greene/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Predicting the Cincinnati Reds' Opening Day Bullpen

Originally posted on Cincinnati Reds on SI | By Jeff Carr | Last updated Feb 11, 2026 1:07 PM ET

The Cincinnati Reds have finally put together an offseason that feels complete. While the roster isn’t perfect, it feels more well-rounded than in years past, which makes predicting the Opening Day version quite enjoyable.

The Reds spent a lot of time and money upgrading the bullpen this offseason and this group looks as strong and ready to finish what the amazing Reds rotation starts on most days. The closer remains the same, with plenty of firepower to support him.

Closer - Emilio Pagan

Pagan had a career year in 2025 with 32 saves in 38 opportunities. He posted a strong strikeout to walk ratio of 3.68 while limiting opponents to less than a baserunner per inning (0.917 WHIP). He will begin the year as the Reds closer in 2026.

Setup man - Tony Santillan

Santillan pitched almost every other day in 2025. His 80 appearances provided stability for Francona out of the bullpen but Santillan also brought it every time he was on the mound. Of those 80 appearances, he kept the scoreboard clean 66 times while allowing two or three runs only five times. Baseball Reference calculated that he was worth 3.0 WAR last year, thanks to the win probability he added to the Reds' season.

7th Inning or Backup Setup Men - Pierce Johnson and Graham Ashcraft

What the Reds truly added to their bullpen was to improve the floor of it. While the top two guys remain unchanged, their support system is vastly improved. Ashcraft was a misunderstood reliever in 2025. His 2.72 FIP easily led the Reds' bullpen and showed that a lot of what went into his 3.99 ERA was bad luck.

Johnson brings a weapon to Terry Francona’s bullpen arsenal that no one else has: an elite curveball. While most guys are sinker-slider combo pitchers, Johnson offers a curveball that is fall-of-the-table madness to hitters. He will be an entirely different look from pretty much every other reliever on the Reds.

Lefties - Caleb Ferguson and Brock Burke

Nick Krall shuffled the Reds' hand when it comes to southpaws for 2026. Francona didn’t have a lot of options for a lefty out of the pen last year, but you could see him have as many as three left-handed bullpen options at times in 2026. Ferguson is not a strikeout machine, but he is a weak-contact machine. Hitters do not barrel him up and he generally keeps the ball on the ground.

Burke saw his strikeout numbers take a dip last year, but he has the stuff for Derek Johnson to work with to get those back up and complement his ability to also limit hard contact and keep the ball on the ground. At Great American Ballpark, ground balls are much more preferable than the alternative.

The Competition - Connor Phillips, Zach Maxwell, Luis May, Sam Moll

The final two spots in this bullpen seem to be open for debate. Phillips showed electric stuff in a short time in 2025, but we still need to see more from him, as he had a bit of a high walk rate and a high fly ball rate. Moll is out of options. If he does not make the Opening Day bullpen, he’ll have to be placed on waivers before being sent to Louisville. I would almost guarantee that another team claims him if that happens. Then there’s Maxwell and Mey. Both guys are a lot of fun and showed us that at times last year. Both guys can also go way off the rails with their control and become their own worst enemies.

My expectation is that Phillips and Moll earn the Opening Day bullpen nod. I certainly expect to see plenty of Maxwell and Mey along the way, though.

One thing is clear, we should have more confidence in the Reds with late inning leads this season thanks to an improved bullpen.

This article first appeared on Cincinnati Reds on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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