Predicting The Yankees’ Remaining Schedule

Now that the Yankees have, at least for the moment, stopped their freefall, it’s time to take a look at what their schedule holds the rest of the way.

For starters, the Yankees have now completed 133 of their 162 regular-season games. So, that leaves 29 games to go before the postseason begins. At the moment, New York is tied atop the AL Wild Card standings with the Boston Red Sox, each holding a 1.5 game lead over the third wild card, Seattle Mariners. (A quick note, if the playoffs started today, the Red Sox would be the top wild card team and the Yankees would be the number two, courtesy of Boston holding the tiebreaker.)

New York has won four games in a row and is en route to Chicago to play the White Sox for four games, which should result in at least three victories for the Bombers. After that is when things get interesting. The Yankees will be off on Labor Day (September 1st) before playing a three-game series in Houston against the Astros, who currently lead the AL West by 1.5 games over Seattle and are holding down the three seed in The AL. 

The Bombers lost two-out-of-three to Houston at Yankee Stadium in early August and have struggled against the Astros for the better part of the last decade, getting knocked out of the playoffs by them four times (2015, 2017, 2019, 2022). New York’s record against teams with a .500 record or better this year is just 37-37. Throw in the Yankees’ struggles on the road this year and this series could cause a lot of headaches for New York.

After that, the Bombers come home to host the Toronto Blue Jays for three games, a series which they will desperately need to win if they wish to keep their faint dream of capturing the AL East Title alive. However, New York is 3-7 versus Toronto so far this year and just 17-22 against the AL East in general. 

After a quick off day on September 8th, the Yankees then host the Detroit Tigers for three games. They are 1-2 against Detroit so far, but 12-6 against the AL Central. Then comes a three-game series against the Red Sox, against whom the Yankees are 2-8 this season. 

There’s no rest for the weary, as New York then travels to Minnesota for three against the Twins. However, that series presents a chance for the Bombers to “get right” as they have a 109-43 record against the Twins since 2002, including a 2-1 mark this year. 

From there, they go to Baltimore for four against the Orioles, against whom they are 3-3 this season. The Yankees finally get another off day on September 22nd before a six-game, season-ending homestand against the White Sox and Orioles (three games against each). 

Ever since MLB moved to a three wild card per league playoff format in 2022, the lowest number of wins by a wild card team has been 84, done by the Arizona Diamondbacks and Miami Marlins in 2023. 

The Yankees would need to go 11-18 the rest of the way to match that paltry win total. The average wild-card team has won 89.72 games going back to 2022, so let’s round that up to 90. 

For New York to get to 90 wins, it would have to go 17-12 the rest of the way. That’s doable, but the 12 games they have left against Houston, Toronto, Detroit and Boston are a major roadblock. Considering New York’s struggles against teams who are .500 or better this year, let's say the Yankees only win six of those 12 games. 

If that happens, then the Bombers would need to go 11-6 against the White Sox, Twins and Orioles to get to 90 wins. That seems far less daunting, but it leaves them very little margin of error. 

Only time will tell, but the Yankees certainly have their work cut out for themselves.