Previewing Blue Jays’ arbitration cases ahead of 2026 deadline

The deadline for players and teams to settle on a contract for the 2026 season is Thursday, with both sides required to exchange salaries if an agreement can’t be reached by that date. This year, the Toronto Blue Jays have only four arbitration-eligible players — Daulton Varsho, Ernie Clement, Eric Lauer and Tyler Heineman.

They’ve already conducted early business on this front, with Nick Sandlin, Dillon Tate and Ryan Burr — all of whom were previously eligible for arbitration — electing free agency after clearing waivers earlier this off-season. Their departures saved the club $4.5 million in projected arbitration salary for next season, courtesy of MLB Trade Rumors’ annual projections.

Using those projections, the Blue Jays are projected to spend roughly $20 million on their four arbitration cases in ’26 between Varsho, Lauer, Clement and Heineman. Here are their respective salary projections:

• Daulton Varsho: $9.7 million (*$8.2 million)
• Eric Lauer: $4.4 million (*prorated $2.2 million)
• Ernie Clement: $4.3 million (*$1.97 million)
• Tyler Heineman: $1 million (*$780,300)

*Each player’s 2025 salary*

Varsho and Lauer are each entering their final season of club control and will become free agents next winter. Meanwhile, Clement and Heineman both have two additional arbitration years remaining before they hit the open market following the 2028 campaign.

Last off-season, 17 arbitration-eligible players failed to reach settlements with their respective teams before the Jan. 9 deadline passed, with Kyle Tucker — the top free agent available in this year’s class — the most notable player to exchange salary with his club. That group, of course, didn’t include superstar first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who settled for $28.5 million to avoid an arbitration hearing for a second straight winter.

A few months later, the franchise cornerstone agreed to a record-breaking 14-year, $500 million extension, with Year 1 of that mega deal beginning in ’26. They also extended catcher Alejandro Kirk last spring, buying out his final arbitration year and four free-agent seasons with his five-year, $58 million extension.

Looking at possible extension candidates from this winter’s arbitration cases, perhaps the Blue Jays could follow a similar template with Varsho this spring ahead of his age-29 season. Since arriving over three years ago, he’s morphed into an elite defender in centre field — leading all major league centre-fielders in defensive runs saved (+43) since 2023 — while becoming an integral piece of the club’s core position-player group.

While questions remain about Varsho’s offensive ceiling, the left-handed-hitting outfielder enjoyed a career year at the plate last season, albeit over a 71-game sample size, crushing 20 home runs with a .548 SLG and 123 wRC+ (100 league average). Now that he’s a year removed from shoulder surgery, which sidelined him until late April, there’s optimism that he’ll be able to deliver the best all-around performance of his career next season.

Staying healthy will be crucial for Varsho during his fourth season with the Blue Jays, as he also missed extended time last year due to a left hamstring strain. When on the field, though, the everyday centre-fielder was a key difference-maker — both defensively and offensively.

The Blue Jays organization has spoken highly of Varsho’s contributions in the past and certainly views him as a part of the club’s foundation moving forward. But they’re also interested in another foundational outfielder right now — Tucker, who remains in play even after signing infielder Kazuma Okamoto.

With Anthony Santander’s five-year, $92.5 million contract already on the books, signing Tucker and extending Varsho would tie up a significant portion of the franchise’s resources in the outfield, even with George Springer’s six-year, $150 million deal expiring after next season.

Unless they plan on unloading salary, walking down that path would signal a dramatic departure from previous spending limits for the Blue Jays, putting them in a tier alongside the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets — two of the sport’s highest-profile spenders.