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Projecting Astros' 2026 Rotation After Luis Garcia's Second Tommy John Surgery

Originally posted on Houston Astros on SI | By Brad Wakai | Last updated Oct 5, 2025 8:00 PM ET

The Houston Astros aren't playing in October for the first time since 2016.

While the offseason of change the Astros underwent this past winter was a real sign that missing the playoffs could be a possibility, the way they led the division for the majority of the year made it seem unlikely that it would actually come to fruition for this franchise.

But after injuries ravaged the club and played a part in their second half stagnation, Houston is now dealing with the reality that their reign on top of the American League could be over. They'll certainly have something to say about that, but the fact they were swept in the Wild Card round last year and didn't even make it to October this season is notable.

One thing that would solidify things for the Astros is having a more consistent rotation, which is something they haven't had the past two campaigns. Unfortunately for them, there's a good chance that trend continues in 2026.

Luis Garcia Getting Second Tommy John Procedure

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The comeback of Luis Garcia was short-lived. After making his return to the big league mound for the first time in 28 months on Sept. 1, he exited his second start in the second inning eight days later. Subsequent testing revealed an injury that will require his second Tommy John procedure.

That could spell the end to Garcia's tenure in Houston, and it only adds to the uncertainty about this rotation heading into next season since ace Framber Valdez is largely expected to depart in free agency as well.

So how might things look for the Astros on Opening Day and throughout the regular season? Here's an early thought on how the rotation might be set up now that Garcia is out for the year.

Early 2026 Astros Rotation Projection

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Things could change during the offseason. While the Astros aren't expected to be aggressive this winter based on their payroll situation, adding another starting pitcher could be on their to-do list based on the Garcia injury.

But it's hard to bank on that when there are other areas the front office could address. So this early projection will just be using the players who are on the major league roster in addition to those in the minor league system.

Based on that, here is the likely Opening Day starting rotation:

Hunter Brown
Cristian Javier
Spencer Arrighetti
Lance McCullers Jr.
AJ Blubaugh

Without Garcia in the mix, that makes some room for AJ Blubaugh to earn himself a spot in the rotation for Opening Day. And based on what he did during the 2025 season, he should have a good chance to make that a reality.

While the 25-year-old was primarily used as a reliever, he did give up just two earned runs in 11 innings pitched across three starts, ringing up 15 batters and walking six in the process. That built upon his strong showing coming out of the bullpen, where he had a 1.71 ERA across eight appearances.

Hunter Brown will undoubtedly be the No. 1 starter with Cristian Javier taking over as the secondary guy now that he's back from his own Tommy John surgery. And with Spencer Arrighetti getting an offseason to put a weird campaign behind him that was snake bitten by injuries, he should be able to become a productive arm for this team again.

As for Lance McCullers Jr., that is the biggest question mark. If he comes into camp healthy and leaves spring training in good form, he'll get another shot to be a starting pitching for Houston. However, his leash could be short considering the Astros already wanted to move him into the bullpen.

Other players to keep an eye on for a spot are Jason Alexander, J.P. France and Colton Gordon, with fifth-ranked prospect Miguel Ullola and 12th-ranked prospect Ethan Pecko also knocking on the door with good showings in Triple-A this year.

On paper, the depth isn't terrible. But after losing a proven performer and the possibility of their consistent ace Valdez moving on, Houston will once again head into the upcoming season with question marks in their starting rotation.