Projection Systems Love Diamondbacks Pitching

ERA+ accounts for external factors such as ballparks and opponents. Once those are factored in, it adjusts to where 100 is league average and 125 would be 25% above average and so on.

This would mean that the Diamondbacks are projected to be 13% above average compared to the average MLB team.

ZiPS Projections Call for D-backs' Hitting to Be Close to League Average

According to ZiPS DC by Symborski, the Diamondbacks' hitting is expected to fall to 18th among MLB teams and have a 99 wRC+.

100 is the league average, so this projection system sees the Diamondbacks' offense being very close to the league average. They have them hitting 171 homers.

It's a tad low when considering the team still has Corbin Carroll, Naylor, Ketel Marte, Lourdes Gurriel Jr, and Eugenio Suarez. However, the team did lose 60+ home runs from last year and that's a lot of lost power and production to make up for.

However, their offense is projected to be similar to the Padres, Royals, and Guardians. Two of those three teams were known for having good offenses last year. Thus, perhaps the D-backs can overcome their projected offensive struggles.

Regardless, this combination of offense and pitching projections should be enough for Arizona to make the playoffs should they come true. Speaking of projected win totals and a projected playoff appearance, check below.

Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA Projections Projects Diamondbacks as Playoff Team

This is just their first update, but PECOTA projects the D-backs to finish second in the NL West and to have a record of 86-76, or exactly 86.4 wins and 75.6 losses. That would be a drop-off of three wins from last year.

However, should the team add another bullpen weapon and a key right-handed bat, it wouldn't be a surprise to see them reach 90 wins.

Regardless, PECOTA projects the Diamondbacks to have the third NL Wild Card spot and to make the playoffs as a Wild Card team similar to 2023. If the pitching staff comes close to projections, that could see them making a deep playoff run once again.

For now, only time will tell what happens and whether the Arizona Diamondbacks can meet or exceed their projections. They have plenty of talent, especially on the pitching side. If the new pitching coaches can improve these pitchers even more then the sky is the limit.

While the offense will have to find some extra slugging in their bats to finish league average or better. They have the players to do it and with one more key addition, they can be one of the top hitting-pitching duo teams in MLB.

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