Projections Underestimate the Pittsburgh Pirates’ Top Prospect

Every Pittsburgh Pirates fan is looking forward to Konnor Griffin’s arrival. He is Major League Baseball’s consensus number one prospect and was outstanding in 2025. He started the year at A-Ball Bradenton and ended the year at Double-A Altoona. Expectations are high, but FanGraphs’ ZiPS projections aren’t particularly bullish on his hitting. They see him having a solid, but unimpressive year at the plate, which is a very big underestimation of what he is capable of.

League Average Production, but Big Time Potential?

ZiPS sees him producing about league-average numbers. They have Griffin slashing .261/.328/.398 with a .319 wOBA. For reference, last year’s league average triple-slash was .254/.315/.404 with an average wOBA of .313. ZiPS has Griffin putting up just a 102 wRC+. That means that he’d only be two percent better than league average after factoring in park factors and the league environment. Joey Bart posted a 101 wRC+ for comparison.

His fWAR is projected at around +3.0, so most of Griffin’s value would be derived from his baserunning and fielding. He is excellent in these two parts of his game. But Griffin is still rated at 60 hit and 70 power by Baseball America on the 20-80 scale. According to BA’s 20-80 measurables, a 60-grade hit tool is a .275-.294 hitter. 70-grade power 34-39 home run hitter. That’s akin to production like Nick Kurtz in 2025, or Jose Ramirez and Brent Rooker in 2024.

Other Prospects Are Getting Better Treatment

If that all seems low, you wouldn’t be mistaken. Similar top prospects have much better ZiPS projections. The consensus number two prospect in baseball, Kevin McGonigle from the Detroit Tigers, is projected to slash .254/.329/.442 with a .333 wOBA, and 114 wRC+. JJ Wetherholt is projected to have a slightly better wRC+ than Griffin, coming in at 103. Samuel Basallo of the Baltimore Orioles is projected to bat .238/.304/.457 with a 111 wRC+. Even Owen Caissie, who had a 27.9% strikeout rate and isn’t even a consensus top 40 prospect, has the same projected wRC+ by ZiPS at 102. While that’s no knock on any of these prospects, Griffin arguably had a better minor league season than all of them, and there’s no denying he is ranked higher than any of them.

ZiPS has given previous #1 prospects some very kind projections. In 2023, Gunnar Henderson was projected as a 23-home run hitter with a 123 OPS+. Before 2022, ZiPS had Adley Rutschman putting up a 115 OPS+. Vlad Guerrero Jr. was originally projected to also put up a 123 OPS+ in 2019 by ZiPS. Guerrero is also the last right-handed hitter to rank #1 on Baseball America’s top prospect list (not including Roki Sasaki).

Outright Insulting Comparisons

The near-age hitting comps are plain insulting. ZiPS’ number one hitting comp to Griffin is Franklin Barreto. Barreto was the headliner who went to the Oakland Athletics in the deal that sent Josh Donaldson to the Toronto Blue Jays. Barreto only ever had 237 plate appearances and a 45 wRC+. His second comparison is Andres Gimenez. Gimenez is an outstanding fielder, but has a career wRC+ of 98. His third and final comparison is Alex Gonzalez, a former glove-first middle infielder with a 78 wRC+.

Now that doesn’t mean to set sky-high expectations. There are a lot of big names being thrown around here. That doesn’t mean expect Griffin to put up a rookie campaign that rivals Mike Trout’s 2012 season. But a league average bat, with his defense and baserunning doing the heavy lifting on his value, is a serious under-estimate of what Griffin can do. He could easily be a 20/20 batter with a 115+ wRC+.