Rays Pitcher Not Surprisingly Predicted To Decline Mutual Option

In a recent early MLB free agency intel piece, Passan predicted how things would turn out for players who have options for 2027. Martinez would fall into that category, owning a $20 million mutual option that both the team and he have to agree to pick up for him to earn that salary.

If not, there is a $4 million buyout, which would bump his 2026 guarantee up from $9 million to $13 million. Passan has predicted all mutual options will be declined, including that of Mullins, who was also on the list.

$20 million is a lot of money to pass up, but based on how well Martinez has performed this season, he could seek out a long-term deal. Given the dearth of starting pitching options available in free agency, Passan also believes Martinez is going to get paid this winter.

It is certainly deserved, because he is performing at an incredibly high level. He has thrown a career-high 171.1 innings through 29 starts with a 15-4 record and 2.94 ERA. How Martinez finds success is unique, because he isn’t blowing opponents away, striking out only 101 batters this season.

Nick Martinez would be smart to seek multi-year deal

That low of a strikeout rate normally results in some regression to the mean, but Martinez has avoided extended slumps. He has done a great job keeping opponents off balance, inducing soft contact throughout the year.

With 3.8 bWAR and an ERA+ of 144, Martinez is in the midst of the best season of his career. He earned a spot on the All-Star team for the first time and is going to be taking the mound in the playoffs in a few weeks.

That will provide him another opportunity to boost his profile heading back into free agency, which makes Passan’s prediction of his mutual option being declined all the more likely, since he will look to cash in.