Rays vs. Dodgers prediction, pick, odds for Sat. 8/24

Rays vs. Dodgers Projected Starting Pitchers

Nick Martin’s Rays vs. Dodgers Preview

Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview: Sell High on Taj Bradley

Bradley was able to bounce-back to some extent with a quality start on Monday in Oakland after a trio of disastrous outings, but still features a 4.91 ERA since the All-Star break. That might sound a little more concerning given that Bradley fell apart over his final 13 starts last season with an ERA of 7.11, though his underlying results tell us that kind of drop-off should not be expected.

Bradley's recent velocities do remain on par with his numbers throughout the rest of this season. Over the last 33 innings his xFIP has climbed to 4.20 though, and his strikeout percentage is down considerably from his season average at 21%. He also holds a WHIP of 1.24 in those six starts.

Bradley has allowed an average exit velocity of 91.1 MPH this season, which is the fifth-highest mark among qualified starters. Since the 2022 season he has allowed a 45% hard-hit rate. His strikeout rate has been drastically worse on the road this season (18.3%), as well as his xFIP (4.57). He has also allowed a slug-rate of .445 on the road.

The Rays have been significantly more effective against left-handed pitching this season, and that trend has continued recently. They rank in the leagues top-third against LHP overall this season with a wRC+ of 110, and rank seventh with a wRC+ of 116 versus lefties since July 1.

Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview: Lineup Finally Healthy

While the starting rotation is still missing a number of key arms, the Dodgers are finally enjoying the luxury of fielding a fully healthy lineup which has helped power their five game winning streak. Over the last two weeks the Dodgers hold a wRC+ of 118, and have reduced their strikeout rate to 19.9% with a hard-hit rate of 40.6%.

Since the All-Star break the Dodgers have hit to a wRC+ of 114 against right-handed pitching with an OPS of .769.

In each of the last two seasons Kershaw has outperformed his xERA by some margin, and since 2015 has only pitched to an ERA higher than his xERA once. The numbers seem to have a hard time accurately assessing the legendary lefty, and in 2024 that has remained true as he has outperformed his xERA by over a full run.

Rays vs. Dodgers Prediction, Betting Analysis: Bet the Over

This sets up as a tough spot for Bradley to snap out of a far lesser run of play as he takes on one of the hottest offenses in the league. The Dodgers haven't often had all of their top bats in the lineup this season but that has been the case of late, and it's led to strong results.

Kershaw has been fantastic over his last handful of outings and has always outperformed his expected ERA, but it still seems unlikely that he will be able to hold up a sub 3.00 ERA given his extreme lack of velocity.

The Rays have been one of the best teams in the league against left-handed pitching of late and over this entire season, and this total seems to be a little too low on the idea that they could do some damage off of Kershaw.

At -110 odds, I see value backing this game to go over its low total of 7.5 on a day which should feature slightly favorable weather conditions.

Pick: Over 7.5 (-110)

Moneyline History

Run Line (Spread) History

Total (Over/Under) History