Rays vs. Mariners prediction, pick, odds for Mon. 8/26

Nick Martin’s Rays vs. Mariners Preview

Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview: Problems With Righties

In two starts since returning from the injured list, Pepiot has pitched very well, allowing only two earned runs across 11-2/3 innings of work. His fastball has averaged 94.9 MPH in those two outings, which is right on par with his seasonal average. Over the last five starts, Pepiot has pitched to an ERA of 1.67 and struck out 7.0 batters per nine innings, holding an xFIP of 4.41.

Miller should match up fairly well against the Rays given their recent struggles against right-handed pitching, as well as their ugly splits versus fastballs. Since July 1, Tampa Bay holds a 26th-ranked wRC+ of 88 against right-handers. The Rays have struck out 25.5% of the time in that span (4th highest in MLB) and hold a 31.9% hard-hit rate.

Tampa Bay has a -10.7 weighted fastball runs above average rating this season, as well as a -2.5 weighted split finger fastball runs above average rating.

Seattle Mariners Betting Preview: An Encouraging Series

Three games is not a sample worth reading into, but Seattle's offense did show some positives last series versus the Giants against two quality starters. The Mariners posted a 39.3% hard-hit rate and 26.7% line drive rate, with two of the matchups coming against Robbie Ray and Blake Snell.

Their BB/K ratio also climbed significantly to 0.6 in the three-game set. It's hard to imagine the Mariners' plate discipline numbers can't improve somewhat under new hitting coach Edgar Martinez based on the low bar set the rest of the season, and it will be interesting to see if the team's process at the plate improves throughout the stretch run.

Miller enters this matchup in excellent form. Over his last five starts, he has an ERA of 2.93 with a 3.57 xFIP. He has struck out 28% of batters in that span and pitched to an xBA of .219. His swinging strike rate has also averaged 13% in that span, up from his season average of 10.6%.

Rays vs. Mariners Prediction, Betting Analysis

The Mariners would be my lean in terms of a side here, but they're not quite worth a play with their price now sitting at -135. Backing Pepiot to record over 6.5 strikeouts seems to be a very popular play on today's smaller slate, but I actually think backing Miller to go over 6.5 at a better price is a sharper option.

Miller's arsenal matches up well versus the Rays, who also strike out a lot against right-handed pitchers and hold the second-worst average since July 1st. I see value betting Miller to record over 6.5 strikeouts at anything better than +100

Pick: Bryce Miller Over 6.5 Strikeouts +110 (Bet365, Play to +100)

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Total (Over/Under) History