Aug 12, 2025; Houston, Texas, USA; Boston Red Sox third baseman Alex Bregman (2) bats during the game against the Houston Astros at Daikin Park. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

Red Sox Get Optimistic Prediction For All-Star's Projected $159M Free Agency

Originally posted on Boston Red Sox on SI
By Jackson Roberts | Last updated Sep 6, 2025 5:00 PM ET

There is a central question that will determine the entire tone of the Boston Red Sox's offseason.

Third baseman Alex Bregman seems destined to opt out of the final two years of his three-year "pillow contract," signed in February. If Boston can keep him, it will secure one of the centerpieces of the team's core heading into an expected championship window.

It's a pretty simple question, in retrospect: Will the Red Sox open up their wallets enough to keep Bregman, or will his demands be higher than the club is willing to meet?

Writer registers prediction on Bregman's free agency outcome

On Friday, FanSided's Zachary Rotman predicted that the Red Sox would find a way to keep Bregman in Boston, citing the pressure Boston is under to hammer out a deal after failing to keep many of their other stars in town in years past.

"Bregman had to settle for a short-term deal with opt-outs last offseason, but it goes without saying that he's earned the long-term deal that he and (agent) Scott Boras wanted last winter," Rotman wrote.

"After trading (Rafael) Devers away, the last thing the Red Sox can afford to do is lose Bregman to free agency. I'm going to assume that (principal owner) John Henry will pony up and give Bregman the long-term deal he deserves and Bregman will stay with the team he's clearly enjoyed being a part of."

Last offseason, Bregman was slapped with a qualifying offer by the Houston Astros, meaning the Red Sox had to forfeit their second-round pick to sign him. Teams won't face that same conundrum this offseason, so the market will likely be a lot more fruitful if Bregman opens up the bidding war.

Spotrac currently projects the three-time All-Star's market value at six years, $159 million. It might take a bit more than that to get the job done in actuality, but the bottom line is that the Red Sox should be deeply embarrassed if he signs elsewhere, especially if it's for under $200 million.

Predictions are only so much help. The Red Sox will have to validate any positive feelings about their ability to keep Bregman with their actions.

This article first appeared on Boston Red Sox on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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