Red Sox Have Unique Possible Aroldis Chapman Trade Scenario

For the most part, the Red Sox's nine-game winning streak has killed off most of the doomer talk about a trade deadline fire sale. Even though they remained two games under .500 as of Thursday, they were just half a game behind the Seattle Mariners and Minnesota Twins for the final American League Wild Card spot.

Meanwhile, if Chapman hits 40 innings pitched this season, which is almost a guarantee if he stays healthy, he'll be locked into a $13 million salary next year. That's not a club or a player option -- it's a vesting option that makes the second year of the deal set in stone as soon as he reaches that threshold.

As Red Sox fans have undoubtedly noticed, Chapman stopped pitching to a sub-one ERA on the season in late June. He's had more command issues this year than his incredible 2025 season -- walk rate up from 6.7% to 9.9%. But he's still a closer who can pump 100 mph with extension from the left side and sports a 2.20 ERA to boot.

Experts like ESPN's Jeff Passan and Kiley McDaniel have consistently projected Chapman's chances of being traded as higher than most of his teammates for a reason. His value is probably never going to get higher, and it's possible he'd be the No. 1 reliever moved at this year's deadline.

If the Red Sox are feeling particularly ambitious at this deadline, maybe there's a world where Chapman is traded for a prospect haul, while the Red Sox offer prospects elsewhere to bring in reinforcements for a playoff push. Garrett Whitlock certainly looks like a capable closer in-house.

Ultimately, the guess here is that Chapman will stay if everyone else does. But it's not a guarantee, and we wanted to flag that possibility.