Sep 13, 2025; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; New York Yankees third baseman Ryan McMahon (19) tags Boston Red Sox right fielder Nate Eaton (40) out at third base during the second inning at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-Imagn Images Eric Canha-Imagn Images

Red Sox In Free Fall? Tracking Playoff Odds Drop Since Start Of Yankees Series

Originally posted on Boston Red Sox on SI
By Jackson Roberts | Last updated Sep 14, 2025 12:00 PM ET

“I think we should stop talking about October, to be honest with you."

That was Boston Red Sox manager Alex Cora's message before Saturday's game against the New York Yankees (via Chris Cotillo of MassLive). And it was fitting timing, because for the second day in a row, everything that could have gone wrong for the Red Sox did exactly that.

As Boston suffered a 5-3 loss to the Yankees, the Toronto Blue Jays, Houston Astros, Seattle Mariners, and Texas Rangers all won. Earlier this week, the Red Sox had a five-game cushion over the Rangers for the final wild card spot, and were even tied with the Yankees for the first wild card spot. Now, they trail New York by 2 1/2, are tied with Houston and Seattle, and the lead over Texas is down to two.

Comparing Red Sox playoff odds to earlier this week

The Red Sox are still in somewhat good shape heading into Sunday's series finale with the Yankees, as ace Garrett Crochet takes to the mound in desperate need of his 16th win of the season. According to Fangraphs, Boston's playoff odds entering the day were 81.1%. ESPN has them at a nearly identical 81.2%.

Momentum is not on Boston's side, though. Before Friday's series opener, Fangraphs and ESPN had the Red Sox at 95.3% and 95.5% chances to make the playoffs, respectively. Before Wednesday's series finale with the Athletics, Fangraphs had them at 97.6%.

In a vacuum, one can excuse the Red Sox for staggering a bit since Roman Anthony's injury. They're now 3-6 since Anthony went down, and 5-6 overall in the month of September. But everyone around them is surging at the moment.

Texas, the team with the best odds of spoiling Boston's fun, has won six games in a row and 13 of its last 17. Seattle has won eight in a row to tie the Red Sox after a swoon at the end of August. And all three West teams have easier schedules than Boston the rest of the way.

Boston's magic number to make the playoffs was 12 entering play on Wednesday, and it's still 12 entering Sunday.

We may not yet be at critical mass, but we're getting close. The Red Sox need this series finale against the Red Sox, and they need to win their next two series against the Athletics and Tampa Bay Rays. Then, they have to pray the Toronto Blue Jays and Detroit Tigers have their seedings locked up by those final two series of the season.

This article first appeared on Boston Red Sox on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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