Red Sox Must Resist Temptation To Make Popular Ceddanne Rafaela Decision

Ceddanne Rafaela is a frustrating player to watch sometimes. But the last three days have shown every reason the Boston Red Sox gave him a $50 million extension.

Rafaela only had three home runs all season entering play on Monday, but he homered in each of the three games Boston played against the Los Angeles Angels this week, capping it off with a two-run walk-off dinger tucked around the Pesky Pole.

There's been a ton of discussion about Rafaela's future with this team and how it relates to the eventual call-up of top prospect Roman Anthony. Respected voices like The Athletic's Jen McCaffrey and NESN's Lou Merloni have both stated that it's fairly likely he'll be moved into an infield/super utility role.

Make no mistake, though: The Red Sox got it right with Rafaela from the jump. He needs to stay in center field, and somehow, some way, Boston needs to make the other puzzle pieces around him fit into place.

The obvious issue is that if Rafaela doesn't move, the Red Sox are probably trading either an All-Star in Jarren Duran or a Gold Glover in Wilyer Abreu, neither of whom is slated for free agency anytime soon.

But who has been the most valuable of the three, by both fWAR and bWAR? It's Rafaela. Much of that is defense, but the runs kept off the board count just as much as the ones driven in. Plus, at 24, he's still the youngest of the three.

Take a peek at Rafaela's Baseball Savant page, and you'll notice a few things. He's still chasing far too many pitches, but he's also hitting the ball hard consistently and whiffing a bit less often than he did in 2024. Plus, he's proving to be an all-world defender in center, which we all knew he could be if he was out there full-time.

The player he's most similar to, if you go purely by the Savant page? The Chicago Cubs' Pete Crow-Armstrong, who came into the league at the same time and plays the same position. But while we're asking if Rafaela should be benched or traded, we're talking about Crow-Armstrong as a Most Valuable Player candidate.

The main difference between the two is that Crow-Armstrong figured out how to pull the ball hard in the air. 14 of his 15 home runs have come to the pull side. Rafaela hasn't quite unlocked that tool in his toolkit, but he did launch two balls over the Green Monster this week, including a 426-footer.

Can't claim to have all the answers here, but the Red Sox have to find a way to keep Rafaela in center as he matures. He's going to be a four or five-WAR player this year as is, but if he ever takes the next step, he might be a perennial All-Star.

And since no one likes wishy washy statements, the recommendation here is to trade Abreu. He's awesome, but after coming back to earth after his hot start, it's becoming clear that his ceiling isn't as high as the other two.