Mar 2, 2026; Dunedin, Florida, USA; Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Johan Oviedo (29) throws a pitch during the first inning against the Toronto Blue Jays at TD Ballpark. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

Red Sox Righty Flamethrower Poised for 2026 Breakout

Originally posted on Boston Red Sox on SI
By Patrick McAvoy | Last updated Mar 19, 2026 8:47 PM ET

The Boston Red Sox's starting rotation has been under a microscope a bit throughout Spring Training, but not in a bad way in the slightest.

Boston is in an enviable position right now. The Red Sox have seven capable hurlers for five rotation spots, not even including Patrick Sandoval and Kutter Crawford, who have been worked along slowly in camp. Garrett Crochet, Sonny Gray, Brayan Bello and Ranger Suárez are locks. Johan Oviedo is very close to being a lock himself, but Connelly Early and Payton Tolle have both pitched well enough to not completely close the door.

The most likely option is going to be Oviedo in the rotation and Early and Tolle down in the minors, but their time is coming at some point. One thing that has been true about Spring Training is that the buzz around Early and Tolle has been louder than the buzz around Oviedo, although he has massive potential himself. Oviedo only made nine starts in 2025, but he had a 3.57 ERA and was in the 98th percentile in extension. His advanced metrics, in general, paint the picture of someone ready for a breakout.

Johan Oviedo has a big season coming

While the buzz is loud around Tolle and Early, that shouldn't take away from Oviedo. In fact, popular statistician Thomas Nestico tabbed Oviedo as Boston's biggest breakout candidate.

"Johan Oviedo — RHP," Nestico wrote. "Johan Oviedo was slated to be my Pirates breakout pick before being traded to the Red Sox earlier this winter. My confidence in Oviedo stems from how impressive his arsenal looked following his return from Tommy John surgery. His fastball underwent a significant overhaul, highlighted by a massive uptick in ride (~10″ to 15″ iVB) paired with a lower release and nearly 7.5 feet of extension. This transformed the pitch from a pedestrian offering into a plus-plus weapon according to pitch models.

"The new fastball shape plays exceptionally well off his secondaries thanks to the contrast in movement profiles. Oviedo will be competing for a rotation spot in Boston, but I am confident he can lock down a starting role at some point in 2026. Baseball data consulting. Confidence: High — Oviedo will stick with Boston, but his usage is far from concrete. I still expect at least 100 IP — well more than enough to make an impact."

Now, of course, this is one person's opinion. He's not a typical No. 4 or No. 5 starter. That's what he's going to be for Boston, but this is a guy who has big-time upside himself, along with Early and Tolle.

This article first appeared on Boston Red Sox on SI and was syndicated with permission.

More must-reads: