Sep 23, 2025; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Boston Red Sox first baseman Nathaniel Lowe (37) and relief pitcher Aroldis Chapman (44) celebrate a win over the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images

Red Sox's Updated Magic Number After Monumental Win, Astros Loss

Originally posted on Boston Red Sox on SI
By Jackson Roberts | Last updated Sep 24, 2025 7:30 AM ET

Tuesday night was the best night the Boston Red Sox have had in ages from the perspective of clinching a playoff spot.

Not only did Boston claim a 4-1 victory over the first-place Toronto Blue Jays, but the Houston Astros stumbled in West Sacramento, suffering their fourth-straight loss against a plucky Athletics squad. For the first time since last Wednesday, the Red Sox finished the day with two games of separation over the first team out of the playoff picture.

Now 86-61, the Red Sox still have some work to do. But a playoff berth is within reach, and a strong finish to the Blue Jays series would put them in great position to clinch that berth before the final day of the regular season.

Red Sox's new magic number is three

Because they own the tiebreaker over the Astros (84-72), the Red Sox's new magic number to clinch a playoff spot is down to three. A combination of Red Sox wins and Astros losses that adds up to three would clinch a playoff spot for Boston, and so would a combination of Red Sox wins and losses after Thursday by the Cleveland Guardians and Detroit Tigers that adds up to three.

Go 3-2 for the rest of the week, and there's nothing any team can do to catch Boston. Go 2-3, and all the Red Sox would need is one more Houston loss against the A's or the Los Angeles Angels, or for at least one of those wins to be over the Tigers this weekend.

Boston will send ace Garrett Crochet to the mound on Wednesday against struggling future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer, who allowed seven earned runs and didn't make it out of the first inning in his most recent start.

If the Red Sox win again and the Astros lose on Wednesday, their magic number will be down to one, and they'll have a chance to clinch their playoff berth by sweeping Toronto on Thursday. Fangraphs' updated playoff odds as of Wednesday morning gave Boston a 95.9% chance of making the playoffs.

This article first appeared on Boston Red Sox on SI and was syndicated with permission.

More must-reads: