Reds Roster Expectations: Starting Pitchers Edition

As promising as Greene has been as Cincinnati’s number one starter, Andrew Abbott has solidified himself as the team’s number two starter just as impressively.

The 26 year old has steadily improved year after year, breaking out fully as an All-Star in 2025 and taking over the number one starter role in Greene’s absence.

2023: 21 GS / 109 1/3 IP / 3.87 ERA

2024: 25 GS / 138 IP / 3.72 ERA

2025: 29 GS / 166 1/3 IP / 2.87 ERA

Abbott doesn’t necessarily have to repeat his 2025 season, seeing as it would be quite difficult, but another season of an ERA around 3.00, and over 150 innings pitched will make him a viable number two guy once again.

Nick Lodolo

Nick Lodolo has always shown flashes of potential, but inconsistent command and injuries continued to hurt his production. However, he put it all together in 2025, throwing a career high 156 2/3 innings with a 3.33 ERA.

In fact, Lodolo posted career highs across the board.

4.9 bWAR (career high)

9 Wins (tied for career high)

3.33 ERA (career high)

137 ERA+ (career high)

3.81 FIP (career high)

29 GS (career high)

2 CG/1 SO (career highs)

156 SO (career high)

Now, would it be great if Lodolo had another low three ERA season? Absolutely. But what fans should want is for Lodolo to simply remain healthy and consistent. The Reds rotation is a deep one, with their fourth, fifth, and even backup starters capable of handling a middle of the rotation role on other teams. If Lodolo can avoid the minor nagging injuries and throw anywhere north of 150 innings, he would be the perfect third starter.

Chase Burns

On paper, the promising top prospect had a bit of a tough time in the big leagues. Chase Burns made 13 appearances (eight starts) where he had a 4.57 ERA in 43 1/3 innings. Despite the ERA being a little high, it doesn’t tell the whole story here, as his 101 ERA+ still made him above league average, and most importantly, all the underlying stats look good.

His 35.6 K% was elite as it was impressive to see his strikeout stuff translate immediately in the big leagues. He also had a 2.65 FIP, which was also elite.

.218 xBA

31.5 Chase%

31.9 Whiff%

All of these numbers, including the strikeout rate mentioned earlier, would have put him atop the league if he had qualified for the innings limit.

With an expected ERA of 3.48, this is most likely where Burns will land in a full season next year. Even if eh doesn’t have a sub-4 ERA in 2026, as long as he can get a full season of MLB action in the books, it should be a successful year for him as he is just 23 years old.

Brady Singer

Brady Singer will slot into the final spot in the rotation, but he is much better than your average fifth starter. Singer’s forte in consistency and availability, which are two heavily coveted traits in today’s high-injury era.

He tossed 169 2/3 innings across 32 starts and had a 4.03 ERA. He can certainly fall into the “boring” category, but the results are proven, year after year.

A potential problem within his game is that he had a career high 28.4 fly ball rate, which doesn’t bode well with the home run prone Great American Ball Park. However, his 40.8 Hard-Hit% was the second lowest of his career (excluding the covid shortened 2020 season) which is encouraging.

Another 30 to 32 start season and win an ERA hovering around 4.00 would be more than enough for the Reds.