Reds Under Media Fire, Predicted to Collapse Into Last Place in NL Central

Cincinnati Reds manager Terry Francona (77) speaks with players at the pitchers mound in the seventh inning of a MLB game between the Cincinnati Reds and Detroit Tigers, Sunday, April 26, 2026, at Great American Ball Park in downtown Cincinnati. Frank Bowen IV/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Reds Under Media Fire, Predicted to Collapse Into Last Place in NL Central

Originally posted on Cincinnati Reds on SI
By Zach Pressnell | Last updated May 5, 2026 6:08 PM ET

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The Cincinnati Reds got off to a very hot start to the season, but they've lost their last four games. They're struggling to begin the month of May after leading the division through the month of April.

Bleacher Report's Zachary Rymer recently predicted the Reds would collapse in May, falling to last place in the National League Central before the month ends.

"Speaking of good teams with bad run differentials, it's hard to explain how the Reds are 20-14 despite having been outscored by 22 runs on the season," Rymer wrote. "They have thus far excelled at winning the close ones, going 12-1 in games decided by one or two runs. That is simply not sustainable, particularly for a team that is deficient both on offense (88 OPS+) and on the mound (99 ERA+).

"Vibes can cover for dual deficiencies like that for only so long, and it's not as if the Reds have it easy in the NL Central. The last-place Pittsburgh Pirates are only 3.5 games out of first place, and that same team spent the weekend sweeping the Reds."

Is this realistic? Could the Reds actually fall that far?

Why the Reds Could Fall Apart in May

The Reds have won a lot of close games this year. They're very unlikely to continue winning one and two-run games at such an incredible rate. Already in May, they've lost two close games.

The bullpen was the best bullpen in baseball during April, but it's unlikely it stays that hot throughout the season. The Reds' starting rotation also isn't very impressive right now.

They have some question marks in their lineup, too.

Overall, the Reds team likely shouldn't have made it to 20-11, but they did. Projecting a regression to the mean could make sense, but a complete collapse seems unlikely.

Why the Reds Won't Fall Apart in May

The Reds still have a few stars on their team. Elly De La Cruz has been one of the best players in baseball for the first month of the season. He's likely only going to get better as the season goes on.

The Reds' pitching staff has also looked way worse than expected. Nick Lodolo will return from injury this week, which will give them a big boost. Andrew Abbott should be expected to improve if he can figure out his command woes. Rhett Lowder and Brady Singer shouldn't be expected to post ERAs over 5.00 or 6.00 this season either.

The Reds will be fine. They have the talent, and they have a future Hall of Fame manager. They might need to make a move or two, but the roster isn't that bad. Last place in the NL Central is quite a stretch.

This article first appeared on Cincinnati Reds on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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