Reds vs. Pirates prediction, pick, odds for Fri. 8/23

Mike Ianniello’s Reds vs Pirates Preview

Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview: Things Could Be Better For Cincy

In his sophomore campaign, Andrew Abbott has failed to really build on his rookie season. He has gone 10-10 with a 3.72 ERA in 25 starts. His ERA has slightly improved from last year, but his 4.05 xERA is worse.

The biggest change for Abbott has been his wipe-out stuff not working this season. Despite throwing his sweeper more, which is his best strikeout pitch, Abbott’s strikeout rate has dropped from 26.1% to 19.5% this season.

Coming into this season, the Reds looked like they had a loaded roster filled with talent. However, that talent has not produced consistency. Cincinnati ranks just 24^th in the league in wRC+.

Elly De La Cruz is one of the most electric players in baseball and ranks eighth in WAR this season, but he is the only player on the Reds with a wRC+ higher than 111. Now Jake Fraley and Jeimer Candelario are both on the injured list.

Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview: Trying Not to Falter

It has been a rough season for Bailey Falter at the back of the Pirates rotation. On paper, his 4.02 ERA isn’t the end of the world, but an xERA nearly a run higher at 4.93 is a big red flag.

Most of Falter’s metrics are a concern, in fact. He ranks in the bottom 20% of the league in nearly every category. Falter has a K/9 rate of just 6.29 and has allowed a hard-hit rate north of 40%. His fastball has been serviceable but his curveball has been crushed.

Offensively, the Pirates rank near the bottom of the league across the board. They don’t do anything well, and Bryan Reynolds is the only trustworthy bat in this lineup. Pittsburgh ranks 27^th in wRC+ on the year.

Oneil Cruz and Joey Bart have both been playing well recently with OPS’s above .900 in the last two weeks, but Andrew McCutchen, Ke’Bryan Hayes, and Nick Gonzales are all currently on the injured list.

How to Watch Reds vs. Pirates: Start Time, Channel, Location

Reds vs. Pirates Prediction, Betting Analysis

Abbott has been nothing special for the Reds, and after two seasons, it seems he's nothing more than a league-average starting pitcher. But Falter has been bad. He is a back-of-the-rotation starter and ranks in the bottom 25% of the league.

As inconsistent as Cincinnati has been on offense, they have been better than Pittsburgh across the board. Over the last month, the Reds rank 13^th in scoring and the Pirates are 22^nd. They are 18^th in wOBA and Pittsburgh is 25^th.

While Pittsburgh has been better against left-handed pitchers than Cincinnati, Hayes, Gonzales and McCutchen rank first, second, and fifth on the Pirates in OPS against lefties, and they are all injured.

The Buccos were able to get the win last night behind Paul Skenes, but I expect the Reds to bounce back against Falter. The Pirates are just 5-14 in August and I’ll fade them here.

Reds vs Pirates Pick: Reds +100 (Play to -110)

Moneyline

Cincinnati has played like a league-average team but the Pirates have been dreadful since the all-star break. Abbott is serviceable whereas Falter ranks near the bottom of the league in most categories. I think the Reds should be slight favorites here so take them as an underdog.

Run Line (Spread)

Pass

Over/Under

I would lean over here but am staying away from the total. Both offenses are below-average, but I tend to side with bad offenses against bad pitchers.

Reds vs Pirates Betting Trends

REDS:

• Reds are 2-3 in their last 5 games
• Reds are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
• Reds are 38-24 in their road games against the spread
• The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Reds' last 5 games
• The totals have gone OVER in 27 of Reds' 65 last games at home

PIRATES:

• Pirates are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
• Pirates are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
• Pirates are 38-27 in their road games against the spread
• The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Pirates' last 5 games
• The totals have gone OVER in 29 of Pirates' 61 last games at home