Ryan Pepiot Is Proving the Rays Targeted the Right Dodger Arm

The Tampa Bay Rays rarely fail to return value from a trade in which they sell off a veteran on an expiring contract.

President of Baseball Operations Erik Neander and his team in the Rays’ front office are among baseball’s best at identifying young talent and setting them up for success in the big leagues. The Rays consistently have one of the lowest payrolls in the game yet contend in the American League East division.

Multiple examples of Tampa Bay reaping the benefits of offloading an impending free agent for young, controllable talent involved Tyler Glasnow. Glasnow was originally a member of the Pittsburgh Pirates, where he debuted and pitched from 2016-17. He made his way to the Rays in 2018 when they were selling an expiring arm in Chris Archer.

It was regarded as one of the more successful trades in recent memory from a seller. The Rays got 388.1 innings with a 3.20 ERA out of Glasnow from 2019-23. In addition to Glasnow, they also landed Austin Meadows (5.8 fWAR, 316 games) and Shane Baz (233.1 IP, 3.83 ERA). Archer pitched to a 4.92 ERA in 172 innings as a Pirate.

When the Rays decided they wouldn’t be giving Glasnow big money in free agency years later, they dealt him to the Los Angeles Dodgers in the 2023-24 offseason. Neander sent Glasnow and outfielder Manuel Margot to Chavez Ravine in exchange for right-handed pitcher Ryan Pepiot and outfielder Jonny Deluca.

Just a year and a half later, in 2025, that is already looking like another good deal for Tampa Bay.

Who Is Ryan Pepiot?

Drafted in the third round of the 2019 MLB Draft out of Butler University, Pepiot, 27, was adept at missing bats in college baseball. His strikeout rate improved each year and in his final season with the Bulldogs, he struck out 126 batters in 78 innings.

Due to his advanced feel from the college game and knack for strikeouts, Pepiot rose through the Dodgers’ system quickly. He debuted in 2022, but only for a brief 36.1 inning sample. Pepiot’s 3.47 ERA and 42 strikeouts indicated that he performed well, but his 27 walks over that span showed he was fortunate to be as successful as he was.

Suddenly, in 2023, Pepiot had gained a command of the zone that we had yet to see from him. Between the major leagues and Triple-A Oklahoma City, Pepiot walked just ten batters in 64.2 innings. He missed the first four-and-a-half months with an oblique injury, but upon his return, looked even more suited to be a starter at the highest level.

That offseason, Pepiot was flipped to the Rays. In the midst of his second season with the club, Pepiot has thrown 238.1 innings with a 3.47 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. Pepiot’s fastball has also sat a tick higher in velocity than it had with the Dodgers, now at 95 mph.

In 2025, the 6-foot-3 right-hander has been one of baseball’s most consistent starting pitchers.

Arsenal Breakdown

With the Dodgers, Pepiot was only throwing a fastball, change-up, and slider. Since coming to Tampa Bay, they Rays have now added three new offerings into his pitch mix. Pepiot now throws a sinker, cutter, and curveball, as well.

Pepiot’s best pitch throughout much of his career has been his changeup, which he utilizes to induce poor contact. Per Stuff+, Pepiot’s change-up was graded 121, meaning that it is 21% better than the average change-up, by this metric.

Pepiot’s two other above-average offerings by Stuff+ are his curveball (113) and four-seam fastball (111). The fastball is something Pepiot establishes in all of his starts; he throws the four-seamer a healthy 43% of the time. His sweeping curve has a bit more horizontal break than the average pitcher, and he tosses it in just three percent of the time to keep opposing batters honest. Perhaps he’ll incorporate it into his pitch mix more in coming seasons.

The slider (97 Stuff+) has been a part of Pepiot’s arsenal throughout his time in the majors. This season, he’s throwing it more than he ever has. The hard 89.2-mph slider comes in 19% of the time and can exhibit about three-to-six inches more rise than the average slider.

Pepiot’s sinker (97 Stuff+) and cutter (94 Stuff+) are both near league-average offerings. These new additional fastballs can be utilized depending on the handedness of the batter, to miss barrels. Pepiot’s sinker could induce more ground balls than his four-seamer to a right-handed hitter, while his cutter can be used to come inside on lefties.

As a starting pitcher with around league-average velocity and six solid offerings, Pepiot has the tools to continue to grow and become an All-Star caliber arm.

Analysis of 2025 Season

This year, Pepiot has thrown 108.1 innings and registered a 3.32 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and 3.88 xFIP. His 24.5% strikeout rate is above league average, while his 8.2% walk rate is at about the average mark.

Pepiot has been a worthwhile piece for any major league rotation. His durability is shown by sharing the title of the most games started by a pitcher this season (19). His ability to locate quality pitches is shown by having an above average K-BB% (16.2%).

While Pepiot has been good at many things, he has struggled to put himself among the game’s elite in any one category. He throws an above-average fastball, but not a great one. He strikes batters out at a good rate, but not a great one. Same thing goes for his ability to limit walks, this season.

Last year, Pepiot was very good at getting batters to swing-and-miss (29.9%). This year, however, he isn’t seeing the same level of success (25.7%). That may seem like a small drop-off, but last season he was better than 81% of major leaguers at earning whiffs, while this year he is only better than 55% of pitchers in that realm.

Another development that has prevented Pepiot from joining elite company is that he’s been allowing hard contact five percent more frequently than he had in 2024. Pepiot allowed just four more hard-hit balls last season in 21.2 more innings pitched. This increase in hard contact has caused Pepiot’s home run rate to increase, as well.

While Pepiot has had some shortcomings that have prevented him from reaching ace status, he still is in just his second full big league season. Pepiot is on pace to eclipse his career-high in fWAR this year, should he remain healthy.

Who Else Could the Rays Have Targeted?

In this section, we’ll look into some other pitchers in the Dodgers’ system at the time and see how they stack up. While it’s hard to know how greatly the Rays influenced Pepiot’s major league development, all of these players were developed by the Dodgers in the minors.

Bobby Miller

Miller, 26, was a first round pick of the Dodgers in 2020 and a highly touted pitching prospect at the time of the Glasnow trade. He may even have been deemed untouchable during these negotiations. In 61 major league innings since the start of 2024, Miller has an 8.85 ERA and 1.84 WHIP.

Things haven’t gone much better for Miller in Triple-A this season, where he’s spent the bulk of his time. Miller has a 5.07 ERA with 43 walks in 60.1 innings at the minor leagues’ highest level.

Miller’s stuff grades out really well by Stuff+. He has four above-average pitches by the metric and an overall grade of 107 in a small sample this season. However, until Miller gets the walks under control, he will struggle with efficiency.

Gavin Stone

Stone, 26, was a fifth-rounder in the 2020 draft out of Central Arkansas University. Rated similarly to Pepiot as a prospect, Stone was less physically imposing at 6-foot-1, 175 pounds.

It seemed like Stone was primed to be a contributing pitcher for Los Angeles in 2025. Last year, he threw 140.1 innings with a 3.53 ERA, albeit registering only 116 strikeouts. He showed strong command and an ability to limit hard contact.

Unfortunately, Stone was unable to pitch for the majority of the Dodgers’ playoff run and will miss all of this season, due to shoulder surgery.

Dustin May

This one may have been a bit more unlikely because May, 27, was already a more established big leaguer. He’s shown a dazzling fastball but has been a huge injury risk in recent years.

At the time of this trade, May had never thrown more than 56 major league innings in a season. He had undergone flexor tendon surgery in that previous July and was slated to miss a good chunk of 2024. The 98-mph fastball that he flashed was electric, but he struggled with command at times as well.

If May was on the table, the Rays may have decided that he was too risky and had less team control than the other options. This season, May has set a career-high in innings pitched (89.2) but the fastball velocity has fallen by two-mph and made him less effective.

River Ryan

Ryan, 26, was drafted as an infielder by the San Diego Padres in the 11th round of the 2021 draft. Upon being traded to the Dodgers in 2022, he took to the mound exclusively and impressed.

That season, Ryan struck out 70 batters in 47.2 innings pitched. In 2023, as he moved up the minor league ladder, he struck out 110 batters in 104.1 innings. In his brief stint in Triple-A, Ryan got 12 Ks in seven innings but allowed eight runs.

Ultimately, the Rays may have thought that Ryan was too risky. While they may have been able to land a better bat than Deluca if Ryan was the arm they chose, they seem to have made the right call. Ryan threw to a 1.33 ERA in 20.1 major league innings in 2024 but then needed to undergo Tommy John Surgery. He will be out until the 2026 season.

Final Thoughts

The Rays didn’t have to trade Tyler Glasnow to the Dodgers. But, since they did, it seems like they got as good of a return as they could have hoped.

Even though Pepiot hasn’t evolved into a bona fide ace, he has been a quality major league starting pitcher. On top of that, he won’t be a free agent until the 2029 season. With a six-pitch arsenal that could get better as he gains experience, Pepiot has the potential to have a long major league career.

Looking at the other arms that the Dodgers had to offer, none of their bodies of work compare to what Pepiot has accomplished over the past two seasons. While trading for a guy like Ryan may have allowed the Rays to target a batter bat, it seems likely that they prioritized getting a major league starting pitcher back in exchange for Glasnow.

While some team other than the Dodgers may have offered a pitcher that ends up being better than Pepiot, it’s also possible that this was the best package that the Rays could secure. Based on the Rays’ history of talent evaluation, it seems like they can chalk this trade up as another win, organizationally.