San Diego Padres vs. Pittsburgh Pirates MLB prediction, pick and odds for Tue. 8/6

D.J. James' Padres vs. Pirates Prediction, Preview

San Diego Padres Betting Preview

Cease has a 3.42 ERA with a 3.15 xERA. His Average Exit Velocity is 88.4 MPH with an above average Hard-Hit Rate. His Barrel Rate is lacking, but moving to San Diego has helped him throw strikes more often, which was a glaring issue while playing for the White Sox. Cease’s strikeout rate is exceptional at 32.3% with an above average chase rate. Since the Bucs have performed poorly against righties lately, he can keep them in check.

The Padres have clubbed lefties all season. Since July 6, they have a 123 wRC+ with an 8.7% walk rate and 17.9% strikeout rate. They have six bats eclipsing a .340 xwOBA with a couple others just below .320, so basically, their entire lineup is deep and can hit lefties. They should do so in a weaker-than-average matchup with Falter.

The Padres have a good back-end of the bullpen, especially. In the last month, the Friar relief corps owns a 3.53 xFIP with a strikeout rate at 27% and walk rate under 7%. They have several options to go to when Cease exits, but if he does not walk many, he can throw into the seventh with how the Bucs have fared against righties.

Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

Falter has been getting fine results with a sub-4.00 ERA, but his 4.99 xERA tells a different story. He has a 90 MPH Average Exit Velocity with a below average Hard-Hit Rate and ground-ball rate. At least Cease rarely allows contact because Falter is striking out less than 17% of batters, while not getting many to chase, either. Since his walk rate is nothing great, the Padres should have a field day at the plate.

The Pirates have an 88 wRC+ off of righties in the last month. Most of the damage is coming from the top of the order because they only have four active bats above a .320 xwOBA with those same parameters in place. San Diego’s lineup is so much deeper, and Falter is not the guy to contend with Dylan Cease’s arsenal.

In relief, the Pirates own a 3.93 xFIP in the last month, but their strikeout rate is only a touch above 22%, while they are walking more than 9%. They have a few options to throw, after Falter exits. However, since he has not had the best command and could allow hard contact consistently throughout this game, the Pirates could likely end up throwing the bullpen much earlier than anticipated. The negative regression could start in this one.

Padres vs. Pirates Prediction, Betting Analysis

Cease should come out of this game victorious and should be able to throw pretty deep into the ballgame. The Padres have the artillery in relief and have the more potent lineup to put up runs early and often. Even though they're on the road, they should still do some damage. Take the Padres in this one to win on the moneyline with the juice from -162 to -185.

Pick: San Diego Padres ML (-162, Play to -185)

Moneyline

San Diego Padres -162 – PLAY

Run Line (Spread)

San Diego Padres -1.5 – PASS

Over/Under

8 – PASS