San Francisco Giants Playoff Hopes Ride On Star Free Agent Additions Stepping Up

The San Francisco Giants have been one of the biggest surprises in baseball to this point in the 2025 MLB regular season.

Entering play on May 16, they have a 25-19 record, three games behind the San Diego Padres and four games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League West.

Keeping within arm’s length of those two juggernauts will not be easy. Executives around the league believe that the disparity in the teams' depth will be the difference, ultimately keeping the Giants from moving up in the standings.

San Francisco has been incredibly fortunate in the injury department, which has played a part in their success. Not having to move pieces around on the roster constantly has been a positive; the only injury they have had to deal with to this point is second baseman Tyler Fitzgerald.

Right now, even with their hot start, they are a 50/50 shot at advancing and have landed in the “Coin Flips, But Leaning 'No Postseason'” tier of the playoff chance rankings that Kerry Miller of Bleacher Report put together.

What Are the San Francisco Giants Odds of Making the Playoffs?

Baseball-Reference views them in the best light with a 60.8% chance of making the postseason. Both FanGraphs and PECOTA are below 50% with 46.0% and 42.8%, respectively.

It would be great for their good run of health to continue, but what would really help improve their odds of making the postseason is their star free agent signings, shortstop Willy Adames and starting pitcher Justin Verlander, living up to their contracts.

Signed away from the Milwaukee Brewers, he agreed to a seven-year, $182 million deal, the largest contract in franchise history. 

The slugging shortstop had a brutal April but has been showing signs of turning things around recently, already hitting more home runs (3) in May than in March/April (2) in less than half the plate appearances.

Encouragingly, he is finding success at Oracle Park, a notoriously tough place for power hitters to succeed. He has a .269/.348/.449 slash line with three home runs, five doubles and 11 RBI in only 89 plate appearances.

On the road, Adames has a .189/.271/.305 slash line with two home runs, five doubles and 10 RBI in 107 plate appearances.

The 42-year-old future Hall of Fame pitcher agreed to a one-year, $15 million deal. He has a 4.31 ERA across 48 innings, looking the part of a backend innings-eater at this point in his career. Verlander is still seeking his first win with his new club.

Upping their production would greatly improve San Francisco’s chances of getting back into the playoffs.