Saturday Night Special: Dodgers vs. Yankees Prediction

START TIME: 7:15pm EST, 5/31/2025

After last night's late-night fireworks gave most Yankee backers reoccurring nightmares of the 2024 World Series, it might be hard to get back on the horse. Facing this Dodgers' offense creates instant nightmare fuel for anyone opposing them — the lineup's absolutely relentless. Luckily for us, we can go up against the Trolley Dodgers without facing the likes of Shohei Ohtani by pivoting to a team total. 

I'm always going to present my best case for a responsible +EV bet but sometimes it seems much more intuitive. The Yanks find themselves in a bounce-back spot hitting in a great weather environment — and getting them at O4.5 (-130) versus a non-ace backed by a taxed bullpen feels cheap.

Landon Knack's not terrible, though I'd contend he's not quite ready for the big show, and only seeing meaningful innings for LAD because the Dodgers have an entire rotation shelved on the IL. Knack features a well below-average 93 mph fastball (90 Stuff+) nearly 44% of the time, up in the zone — translating to the elevated career flyball (46.9%), hard hit (46.5%), barrel (11.2%), and home run (1.8 HR/9) rates. 

Does this sound like someone you want to challenge a Yankee team that's destroyed RHP all season with?

New York Yankees vs. RHP, YTD

• 66 HR - 2nd
• .403 SLG - 2nd
• 42.3% Flyball - 4th
• 45.5% Hard Hit - T-2nd
• 12.5% Barrel - Leads MLB
• .359 xwOBA - 2nd

I also mentioned the Dodgers' bullpen, who certainly won't be at full staff given the recent RP workloads. Tanner Scoot and Alex Vesia have both pitched in two of the last three games — plus Ben Casparius threw 20 pitches last night and I doubt he's available.

LAGHEZZA'S LEAN:

Love the offense, the hitting environment, the total and the price to bet NEW YORK YANKEES TEAM TOTAL OVER 4.5 RUNS (-130) on Draftkings. What could go wrong?