Shohei Ohtani 2026 Fantasy Outlook Regression

Hitting Dominance

Shohei Ohtani was the MVP in the National League because of his hitting. Once Ohtani got into a groove and avoided injuries, he was the best player in baseball. He has won four of the last five MVPs and only lost to a historic season from Aaron Judge where he broke the American League record for home runs.

Last year, Ohtani launched 55 home runs, drove in 102 runs, stole 20 bases while leading the league in runs scored with a whopping 146 from the leadoff spot in the powerful Dodgers’ lineup, earning him a fourth MVP. He is the most feared hitter in the National League.

Return To The Mound

Shohei Ohtani returned to the mound and as we wrote above, struck out one third of the batters he faced with an average velocity of 98 MPH. The Dodgers were very careful with their franchise pitcher and although he pitched 14 games, they were tuning him up for the playoffs and World Series. Although that does not help us as fantasy baseball players, it fuels expectations for 2026.

Ohtani delivered just 47 innings, but they were amazing. He had a whopping 67 strikeouts with just nine walks. His strike percentage was 73% so he was pounding the zone. He had an ERA of 2.87 and a WHIP of 1.04.

Regression Risks for 2026

Age and Injury History

Hard to believe that this is even something to look at, but Ohtani will be 31 during this season and that is an age that stolen bases especially will decline. Let’s take a look at the two age charts below: they define age as it associates with stolen bases and home runs.

Let’s look at home runs first since it is less defined. Also, at the Ohtani level, what is regression? If Ohtani were to hit 40 home runs, most fantasy baseball players would be disappointed. Well let me tell you, it is possible. Of course, Shohei is one of the five hitters at age 30 in 2025 who hit 30+ home runs, but look as we get later, age really cranks down. Only two players over 34 years of age hit 30 home runs.

Now, let’s take a splash of cold water here. Ohtani had an epic year in 2023 with his 50-50 season and 59 stolen bases. He only had one other season with more than 25. It is not likely he gets there again based on his age. Look at the chart below. Of the players with more than 25 stolen bases in a season 80% were under 28 and 47% were under 25. Youth runs. Look at the bottom of the chart. Only one player over 32 years old has had a 25+ stolen base season.

Pitching Affects Hitting

The Dodgers plan to continue to give Ohtani a day off after he pitches during the season. In the postseason, things are different but Ohtani had a rough postseason from the pitching side so that could eat into his at- bats.

Hitting Affects Pitching

Ohtani is such a transcendent hitter that they need to keep him at DH every day. In the past, the Dodgers and before that the Angels went with a six-man rotation so that Ohtani could contribute, but that hurts his ability to deliver good pitching numbers.

Your League’s Rules

A major factor in drafting Shohei Ohtani is what your league rules are. There are three ways of handling Shohei Ohtani:

• One Player, One Position's Stats: Each period usually weekly, you use a roster spot for Shohei Ohtani. If you use the DH spot, you get only his hitting stats. If you use a Starting Pitcher spot, you get only his pitching stats.
• One Player, All Stats: Each period usually weekly, you get all his stats that he accumulates. This makes him by far the most valuable player in fantasy baseball ever.
• Two Players, One Hitter and One Pitcher: Many leagues, have him broken up into two players at draft time. Fantasy team owners can draft Shohei Ohtani the pitcher separate from Shohei Ohtani the hitter. The player you have determines the statistics that you receive. You can only play him at the position he is drafted.

This is critical to all the thinking about drafting, trading or keeping Ohtani.

Realistic 2026 Projections

Hitting Outlook

Even if Ohtani pitches every sixth day and plays five of six games, he bats first and gets plenty of opportunities. The lineup is stacked with the addition of Kyle Tucker. Ohtani could score 150+ runs. Look for .280-290 batting average, 42-45 home runs, 125-135 runs scored, 100 runs batted in and fewer stolen bases at 15.

Pitching Outlook

If you are a league that is drafting separate players, this is important. He will likely pitch every sixth team game. So he likely only gets 25 game starts and with six innings per game, he gets a maximum of 150 innings. With 150 innings, Shohei Ohtani is a $20 player and top 15 in the National League. He will have an under 3.00 ERA and a low walks and high strikeouts (close to 200 if he gets 150 innings pitched). I like this investment instead of the second or third closer or seventh or eighth hitter.

Final Verdict

There is no better all-around player in either league. Aaron Judge is as good a hitter, but has not and will not ever pitch. Your league rules are the critical part of all this. If your league treats him with flexibility, it can make for some really fun lineup decisions when you have a good offense and can spot start him as a pitcher. If he ever pitches twice in a week, it gets really fun. Fun is the best thing to have, so go get Shohei Ohtani in your drafts this spring.

Baseball is Life.

People Also Ask

Will Ohtani regress in 2026 fantasy?
Some stolen base pullback is likely, but his power and overall hitting profile should remain elite if healthy.

Ohtani fantasy rank 2026?
He remains a top-five overall fantasy player, with No. 1 upside depending on league rules.

Ohtani's workload concerns 2026?
Yes, especially on the pitching side, where innings will almost certainly be managed.

Best draft strategy for Ohtani?
Draft early for ceiling, but make sure the rest of your roster absorbs pitching volume risk.

Ohtani's two-way fantasy impact?
Few players can swing both offensive categories and pitching ratios in one roster spot.

Dodgers schedule 2026 fantasy?
Strong lineup context and run-scoring opportunities boost his counting stats across formats.