Shota Imanaga to accept Cubs' qualifying offer

Shota Imanaga will be returning to the Chicago Cubs, as The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney reports that the left-hander has accepted the team’s one-year, $22.025M qualifying offer.  The surprising decision means that Imanaga stays put after his time in Wrigleyville seemed to be over, following a series of declined contract options on the part of the Cubs and Imanaga himself.

The four-year, $53M deal that Imanaga signed with Chicago in January 2024 guaranteed Imanaga $23M over the first two seasons, and this offseason presented both sides with decisions.  The Cubs had to decide whether or not to exercise a three-year option on Imanaga’s services that would’ve paid him $57.75M over the 2026-28 seasons, and the team decided to decline.  Imanaga then had a $15.25M player option for just 2026 that he also declined, even though exercising that option would’ve then created a $42M club option for the Cubs for next winter covering the 2027-28 seasons that (if declined) would’ve created a $15M player option for Imanaga for 2027.

The Cubs issued Imanaga the qualifying offer to ensure some compensation if Imanaga signed elsewhere, yet as it turned out, Imanaga will indeed take a one-year pact to remain, with an extra $7.025M added beyond the price of his player option.  He would’ve locked in at least $30.5M for himself by exercising his player option and generating that other player option for next winter, so he is currently leaving $8.475M on the table, given how this rather complicated situation turned out.

A 2026 season more in line with Imanaga’s impressive 2024 rookie campaign will easily land a multi-year contract worth far more than $8.475M next winter, even though the lefty turns 33 in September.  He’ll be able to re-enter next year’s free agent market without the QO compensation attached to his services.  This removes one obstacle for Imanaga in free agency next winter, but more consistency on the mound will be the deciding factor.

Imanaga posted a 3.73 ERA, 20.6% strikeout rate, and an elite 4.6% walk rate over 144 2/3 innings for Chicago this season.  Apart from his great control and the solid bottom-line ERA, the rest of Imanaga’s peripherals were almost all well below the league average.  The problems included a lot of hard and high-impact contact, as only three pitchers allowed more home runs than Imanaga’s 31 big flies in 2025.

A hamstring strain cost Imanaga most of May and June, but he still managed a 2.40 ERA over his first 75 innings of the year before things started to turn in the second half.  Twenty of Imanaga’s 31 home runs allowed came during his last 69 2/3 innings of the season, resulting in a 5.17 ERA.  Things didn’t get any better in the playoffs, as the southpaw posted an 8.10 ERA and gave up three more homers in 6 2/3 frames of postseason work.

These issues with the long ball were also apparent in Imanaga’s 2024 season, if not to the same extreme level.  He also allowed less hard contact and had a solid 25.1% strikeout rate, while delivering a 2.91 ERA over 173 1/3 innings.  This excellent debut season earned Imanaga a fourth-place finish in NL Rookie of the Year voting, a fifth-place finish in Cy Young Award voting, and his first All-Star nod.

Given how well Imanaga was seemingly adjusting to the big leagues over his first season and a half, it seemed like a lock that the Cubs were going to exercise their options to keep Imanaga in the fold through 2028.  However, his rough finish to the season seemingly changed the Cubs’ minds about such a substantial commitment.

Likewise, Imanaga and his reps at Octagon could’ve been concerned over how the market would react to his homer-heavy final 69 2/3 innings.  MLB Trade Rumors ranked Imanaga 22nd on our list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents and projected him for a three-year, $45M deal, but Imanaga and his reps at Octagon might have viewed the qualifying offer as an impediment to an acceptable contract.  If Imanaga was going to have to settle for a short-term “prove it” type of deal anyway, accepting the QO allows him to aim for a bounce-back season in a familiar environment and for a bigger one-year average annual value.

Returning to the Cubs also allows Imanaga to play for a team that should again be a playoff contender.  Starting pitching should still continue to be a need for Chicago even with Imanaga back, but at least one box has now been checked off of the team’s rotation plans.  Imanaga joins Matthew Boyd, Cade Horton, Jameson Taillon, and Colin Rea in the projected starting five, with Justin Steele theoretically able to return from a UCL revision surgery relatively early in the 2026 campaign.  Javier Assad and Ben Brown are also on hand, but the Cubs will want to bolster this group with at least one more reliable starter, given how the team didn’t trust its depth (including Imanaga) during the postseason.