Should the Blue Jays be concerned about Jeff Hoffman?

Jeff Hoffman ranks among MLB relievers

If we go through the stats that make up ‘And That’s Baseball’s’ RPC formula, Hoffman ranks 18th in K-BB%, 19th in SIERA, 153rd in FIP (yikes), 25th in xFIP, 124th in GB%, 109th in average exit velocity, 140th in Location+, and 42nd in Stuff+. There’s some good and bad in there, but the spikes in Hoffman’s numbers are due to his surge in HR/FB%.

The fact that Hoffman’s ERA is 5.29 and yet his expected ERA is 3.48 is quite telling. As is his 4.59 FIP compared to his 2.87 xFIP. Among all qualified relievers this year, the 1.72 difference between his FIP and xFIP is tied for the second-highest in MLB. Hoffman is also in the upper tier of ERA-xERA, which sits at 1.81, which is good for 19th in MLB among all qualifying pitchers.

Jeff Hoffman’s expected statistics rankings

Notably, Hoffman’s teammate Chad Green is also up there as well, ranking seventh on that list with a 1.34 difference between his FIP and xFIP. For both guys, it boils down to home runs surrendered, but it’s not like they’ve all been moonshots off both Hoffman and Green.

There have been a few fluky longballs here and there, and also home runs on very good pitches, so there’s an element of randomness. Evan Benet had a great thread on X earlier this season, which showed just how weird some of these Hoffman home runs were.

During Sunday’s game against the White Sox, Hoffman’s location was all over the place. He also didn’t field what could’ve been an inning-ending ground ball. Then, to make matters worse, a two-run ball dropped into left field. Most of his issues were self-inflicted, but it’s not like he got tattooed in that appearance.

Behind the scenes, these are probably the exact numbers the Blue Jays are looking at to convince themselves not to remove Hoffman as the team’s closer. Optically, it doesn’t look great to take the role away from the guy you just signed to a three-year deal. Going with the next-hottest reliever doesn’t guarantee the next guy up will thrive in that role, either.

For the time being, the team will afford Hoffman some grace to work this stuff out. He’s not the only Blue Jays reliever to struggle as of late. Walks are rearing their ugly head with Brendan Little, making him a risky choice in high-leverage situations suddenly.

The solution is simple on paper but difficult in practice: keep the ball in the yard. Throughout a full season, this will all balance itself out. Along with the cheapie, wall-scraper home runs, there will be fly balls which die on the warning track. There just haven’t been many of the latter for Hoffman as of late.

Opponents could barely touch Hoffman’s four-seam fastball during his electric month of April, but the league has since caught on, and that pitch is no longer as effective as it once was. Month-to-month, opponents slugged .167 on Hoffman’s four-seamer in April, .800 in May and now .900 in June.

He’s simply not generating the swing and miss he did earlier in the year. Hoffman also did a better job at dotting the corners and painting the edges with his fastball the first month of the season, and he’s leaving more fastballs over the heart of the plate, which opponents will gladly do damage on.

This is a long-winded way to say that I’m not concerned about Jeff Hoffman and I don’t think the Blue Jays should be, either. There doesn’t have to be any buyer’s remorse over signing Hoffman instead of just hanging onto Romano. Relief pitchers go through rough patches, but it takes a really long time for their numbers to normalize after a meltdown or two.

Hoffman should stay as the closer, and as John Schneider said, they should trust the sh*t out of him. After all, they have 33 million reasons to.