Should the Padres Trade Nick Pivetta?

The San Diego Padres have made serious moves this offseason to gear up for another deep postseason run. Payroll has been a major topic of discussion, and adjustments will need to be made for the team to continue adding pieces. 

Both Ken Rosenthal and Dennis Lin have reported rumors surrounding the possibility of a Nick Pivetta trade as a way to move salary.

Pivetta is coming off the best season of his career, posting a 2.87 ERA with 190 strikeouts across 181.2 innings. All three marks were career highs and earned him a sixth-place finish in NL Cy Young voting.

Given the current state of the Padres’ rotation, the immediate reaction is understandable. Why trade a starter of his caliber? The rotation is thin, and health will always be a concern. Still, there is an argument to be made.

Let’s start the case for trading Pivetta.

The Pros of Trading Nick Pivetta

The best way to look at it is that the Padres are essentially selling high on Pivetta’s year.

They can move Pivetta for a younger, more controllable arm, which kills two birds with one stone. The payroll issues would be addressed, and they would get a starter for the foreseeable future, which seems to be a priority for the front office. 

Given the Padres’ needs, the Mets would be the best fit for a trade. They have a trio of young arms in Nolan McLean, Jonah Tong, and Brandon Sproat. All of whom are extremely talented and would improve San Diego’s roster.

Of the three, McLean seems to be untouchable. However, Tong and Sproat would be within arm’s reach. Alternatively, if A.J. Preller wants to address the corner position, Mark Vientos could be included in the package.

With the signings of Bo Bichette and Jorge Polanco, there may be more motivation to move Vientos.

There were rumors that a deal was going to be made between the two clubs, but according to John Heyman, that went “nowhere” because Preller was seeking an overwhelming return for Mason Miller. Which is understandable given the prospect capital the Padres spent to acquire Miller at the deadline. 

This doesn’t mean that a trade still can’t be made; it means that Miller won’t be at the center of the trade. Other teams that could satisfy the Padres’ needs are the Baltimore Orioles or the Kansas City Royals. 

For the team that is trading for Pivetta, they would be assuming all of the risk if Pivetta regresses. 

The way his contract is currently constructed, he is owed $19 million this season and $14 million next season. There is a player opt-out available in 2027 that serves as a safety net. So, assuming Pivetta takes a step back, he will opt in, leaving the ball club to owe him $33 million over the next two seasons. 

Of course, the other way to look at it is you are acquiring a top starting pitcher on a very team-friendly contract and he continues his stretch of good play from last season. This is especially the case for teams that are in a win-now mode.

The case for trading Pivetta is strong, but what about keeping him on the roster?

The Cons of Trading Nick Pivetta

After Michael King went down and Dylan Cease saw a dip in performance, it was Nick Pivetta who stepped up and became the ace of the staff. Without him, the Padres likely wouldn’t have enjoyed nearly the same level of success.

The primary reason not to trade Pivetta is fairly straightforward: you don’t trade quality starting pitching when it’s your biggest need.

Even if the Padres were to acquire a young arm in return, what are the odds that the pitcher can replicate what Pivetta provided last season? We are talking about a pitcher who ranked fifth in Run Value (35), finishing under Tarik Skubal, Paul Skenes, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Cristopher Sánchez.

Yes, moving him may free up payroll, but it replaces a known commodity with a projection.

The rotation includes Pivetta, King, Joe Musgrove, Randy Vasquez, JP Sears, and Kyle Hart. Both King and Musgrove are coming off an injury, and the remaining guys offer little upside.

Let’s say Preller were to work a deal with the Mets and bring in a pitcher like Tong or Sproat, the Padres would be adding yet another question mark to a rotation already full of them. That only increases the pressure on a staff that will need stability, especially under a new manager, Craig Stammen.

There is also the argument that Pivetta can repeat, or at least closely approximate, his success from a season ago. Given the adjustments he made to his pitch mix and location, it’s fair to believe he can continue to dominate. While his expected numbers suggest some regression, that’s to be expected from a pitcher coming off career highs across the board.

Even if Pivetta regresses to a mid–3.00s ERA while maintaining similar strikeout totals, that level of production is worth keeping. It’s far more reliable than banking on a rookie or young arm to break out and sustain success over the course of a full season.

Final Thoughts

While I’m not high on the idea of trading Pivetta, there is merit to considering it. Ultimately, moving him would be more of a gamble than retaining him, but Preller is one of the biggest gamblers in baseball, so nothing can be ruled out.

If an offer truly becomes too good to pass up, it would be understandable for Preller to pull the trigger. A package that includes both a young arm and a controllable bat could justify moving Pivetta. Even then, it would introduce another layer of uncertainty for a team already facing plenty of it heading into the season.