Spencer Turnbull is more than just a depth signing for the Toronto Blue Jays

After parts of 5 seasons with the Tigers, Turnbull was picked up by the Phillies just before the start of spring training last season and was slated for swingman duties. Turnbull ended up pitching in 17 games (seven starts) across 57 1/3 innings before a lat strain in late June ended his season early. It ended up being an extremely effective year for Turnbull as he put up a 2.65 ERA/4.05 xERA/3.85 FIP/0.7 fWAR and missed more bats than any other season of his career, as evidenced by his 26.1% strikeout rate. How did he do it? Let’s dive in.

The Phillies made alterations to Turnbull’s pitch usage in 2024. Before last year, Turnbull was predominantly a 4-seam fastball/slider/sinker type while sprinkling in a changeup and a curveball. Once he got to Philly, they had him scrap the slider almost entirely and introduced him to a new pitch, a sweeper.

The sweeper for those unfamiliar is technically still a slider but with a significantly more amount of horizontal break. For context, his average slider had 7.6″ of horizontal break while his sweeper had 13.9″. Turnbull had immediate and immense success with his new pitch; his sweeper in 2024 produced a .187 xBA/.287 xSLG/.262 xwOBA/30.8% whiff rate against. His +5 run value on the pitch meant it was his best individual pitch all season. The right-hander seemingly agreed, as he used it nearly as much as his fastball all year.

The fact that Turnbull was still available on the free agent market was surprising.

Yes, he was coming off the lat injury, but this is a serviceable pitcher in a demographic that is always in high demand. MLB Trade Rumors projected Turnbull to get a one-year deal worth $7 million this past offseason, while Spotrac projected a 2 year deal with an AAV of $4.4 million.

The Blue Jays will more than likely send Turnbull to the Player Development Complex in Dunedin initially to get him to pitch in extended spring training games in a controlled environment and where the weather won’t be miserable. From there, he likely pitches in a game or two with Dunedin before moving on up to either New Hampshire or Buffalo for a couple more appearances. From there, if all goes well, Turnbull likely joins the Blue Jays as their fifth starter, where I expect him to be a really solid contributor. This wasn’t just your average run-of-the-mill depth signing in early May. There’s some upside to be had.