Stephen Kolek, Luinder Avila To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

Royals manager Matt Quatraro informed reporters, including Anne Rogers of MLB.com, that right-handers Stephen Kolek and Luinder Avila will both undergo Tommy John surgery tomorrow. Both pitchers will miss the remainder of this season and likely all of 2027 as well. Kolek is already on the 60-day injured list. Avila is on the 15-day IL but will be transferred whenever the Royals need his 40-man spot.

Kolek, 29, has generally been a serviceable ground-ball pitcher in his career. He came over to the Royals from the Padres in last year’s Freddy Fermin trade. Between those two clubs, he has thrown 213 1/3 innings with a 4.13 earned run average. His 16.7% strikeout rate is below average but his 6.1% walk rate and 51% ground ball rate are both strong figures. He landed on the 15-day IL a few weeks ago due to a flexor strain. Three days later, he was transferred to the 60-day IL, which didn’t bode well.

Avila, 24, has less big league experience but came into the season as one of the club’s top prospects. He has a 4.82 ERA in 84 big league innings. Right forearm tightness put him on the IL just two days ago and it seems a quick determination has been made that he needs to go under the knife.

Neither pitcher was the most important arm for Kansas City but these two absences are notable for a club that has been hemorrhaging rotation depth all year. They came into the season with a front five of Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, Noah Cameron and Kris Bubic, with guys like Kolek, Avila, Ryan Bergert and Ben Kudrna further down the chart.

Bubic spent a lot of this year on the IL and was recently flipped to the Dodgers before his impending free agency. Ragans underwent UCL surgery last month and will be sidelined well into 2027. Bergert had Tommy John in April and is on a similar timeline. Kudrna had a surgery for an olecranon stress fracture in April and has an uncertain timeline. Now Kolek and Avila will likely be non-factors next year.

The Royals are hoping to return to contention in 2027 but the rotation will need work. They are now down to Lugo, Wacha and Cameron as a core. Randy Dobnak is currently in the rotation but he’s a ground-ball guy with even fewer strikeouts than Kolek. Mitch Spence is on the 40-man roster but he has a 5.35 ERA in Triple-A this year. For the short term, the Royals might have to scoop guys from the waiver wire or reach into their depth. Going into next year, adding to the rotation will have to be on the to-do list.